592
FXUS63 KDLH 062341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather danger Sunday for areas north of the Iron
  Range in far northern MN.

- Hot and muggy conditions beset the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Heat headlines may be needed.

- Rain chances Sunday night through Monday. Severe storms
  chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure is leading
to a sunny and a quiet day across the region. Temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid and upper 80s by this afternoon. Dry
conditions are also on tap with Min RHs dropping into the 30s and
mid 20s. Minimal wind today will keep fire weather danger in check.
Overnight, some fog may advect in from Lake Superior with most
guidance keeping it confined along the shoreline with some spillage
at the head of the Lake into the St. Louis River and surrounding low
lying areas.

Sunday:

The upper level trough shifts east with southwest flow aloft
promoting further warming temperatures for the day. High temps are
expected to climb into the the 90s and upper 80s with cooler
temperatures remaining near Lake Superior. An emerging low pressure
in the High Plains will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient
over the region with southerly winds increasing. This increase in
winds paired with dry conditions will prompt increased fire weather
danger, particularly across our northwest counties near the
Borderlands.

Monday:

Sunday night into Monday morning will see increased chances of
shower and storm activity once again. The Northland will find itself
firmly within a warm sector, the persistent southeast flow will have
led to PWATs increasing to over 1.75" Isentropic ascent paired with
an upper level trough moving in from the south will help to brew
some showers. Some storms can`t be ruled out as some weak MUCAPE
will be in play, but bulk shear will be absent lending itself to non
severe storms expected. Model soundings do show some deep saturation
through the column which as currently depicted in the 12Z suite of
deterministic guidance may lead to a nice soaking rain for a the
Northland. One thing that will need to be monitored is the cold
front advancing across the Northern Plains on Monday. Current
guidance does not have it breaching our borders before becoming
washed out and overtaken by strong warm air advection. But if it
manages to maintain, it will have better deep layer shear and could
introduce some severe storms across our west. Currently SPC has the
threat outside of our region, but worth watching.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

The region then becomes beset with a warm and moist air mass for
Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will climb into the 90s and our
dew points will float around the 60s and 70s with Wednesday expected
to be the hottest and muggiest day of the week. Heat indices will go
from 90F to some triple digits from the Brainerd lakes region into
NW WI. Heat headlines may be needed.

As expected with a warm and moist air mass, severe potential cannot
be ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday. MLCAPE will frequently be in
excess of 2000 J/kg. With the upper level pattern remaining
meridional we will have multiple chances for impulses to roll
through the region, if these can admix with diurnal heating we could
see strong to severe storms. We are still a little ways out to get
into the specifics but confidence is high enough with decent
ensemble agreement that SPC has us highlighted in a slight risk for
Wednesday, but would not fully rule out Tuesday`s severe potential
as well.

Late week into the weekend:

Cluster analysis shows an upper level low or wave ushering the warm
and moist air mass off to the east. However, exact timing still
remains in flux with CMCE and the GEFS being more progressive than
the ECMWF. But if we take the overall blend from all the families we
get relief from the heat starting Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
activity also has low predictability at this time range with the
Euro favoring a stalled out upper level low over the Canadian
Prairies which would increase precipitation chances. The other
families are a little less excited with a more progressive upper
level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light
winds this afternoon as high pressure sits over the region, then
slowly become southeast with some gusty winds for BRD/INL. Fog
over Lake Superior this evening is likely to spread inland after
midnight and affect KDYT and KSUW, but whether it will ooze up
over the hill to KDLH is a big question mark. If it does,
conditions may drop as low as IFR, but return to VFR by 13z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Southerly winds today around 5 to 10 knots. These winds will shift
to out of the northeast early tomorrow morning. Speeds will increase
in the afternoon with Small Craft Advisories likely needed through
Monday night. Additionally, satellite does show some very transient
fog moving across the Lake. There is potential for this to thicken
up later this evening and impact the near shore waters. If this
comes to fruition most of the guidance suggests that it will linger
into the late morning hours on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Quiet weather for the weekend with mostly sunny skies and warm
temperatures. We do dry out a bit today with Min RHs expected to
drop to around 30% with a few areas north of the Iron Range
flirting with near 25%. However, light and variable winds today
as high pressure sits over the region leading to low fire
weather concerns. Tomorrow, winds increase out of the southeast
with another warm day on tap. While temperatures do warm, dew
points will also increase a bit to help regulate the RHs. Not
expecting to hit Red Flag criteria at this time but our Fire
Weather Watch may need to be moved to Special Weather Statement
for near critical fire weather conditions. Rain chances return
late Sunday and persist through Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MNZ010-011-018.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt