233
FXUS63 KDLH 030546
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall becomes more scattered in coverage and lighter
  intensity late this evening and overnight.

- Rain showers continue through Wednesday, with some lake effect
  rain showers to linger Thursday for portions of the South
  Shore.

- Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for the end of the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers are in full swing this afternoon, and will
continue tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday. The heaviest
rainfall is still expected this afternoon and evening with this
initial wave of moisture pushing through our region ahead of a
deepening low pressure system. A few embedded rumbles of thunder
remain possible across parts of the Northland through this
evening. Strong southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 35
mph before easing later tonight. As a dry conveyor belt works
into the area overnight, widespread rain will transition to more
scattered showers. This will lead to a lull in rain intensity
tonight before a second round follows with another shortwave on
Tuesday. Given ongoing D1 to D4 drought conditions across the
Northland, this soaking rain brings welcome relief.

Widespread soaking rain will redevelop across the area on Tuesday
as a shortwave dives south from northern Manitoba and reinforces
the trough over the Upper Great Lakes, drawing an influx of Gulf
moisture into the region. Rainfall will expand in coverage by
Tuesday afternoon and turn heavy at times heading into Tuesday
night. Orographic enhancement over the North Shore will likely lead
to an additional 1.5-2 inches after this evening, while most others
will only see an inch to inch and a half. Rain showers will
continue through Tuesday night across the entire Northland, with
elevated instability supporting an isolated thunderstorm risk in
parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The low pressure system will briefly slow over the area
throughout Wednesday, causing showers to continue through
Wednesday. Rain will remain persistent and widespread across our
region before gradually tapering from west to east late Wednesday
night as the center of the system begins a sluggish shift
downstream. Multi-day storm total rainfall will broadly reach 1 to
2 inches across the Northland, with localized totals exceeding 2 to
3 inches in north-central Minnesota and along the higher terrain of
the North Shore. Winds will veer northwesterly Wednesday afternoon
as a cooler airmass begins filtering into western areas.

On the back end of the second system, northwest flow of cooler
air over Lake Superior will lead to a few light showers over
Ashland and Iron counties into Thursday. For the rest of the
Northland, rain will taper off early Thursday morning as the low
departs. A noticeably cooler airmass will overspread the region on
gusty northwest winds, causing daytime temperatures to struggle in
the lower to mid 40s. High pressure begins building into the Upper
Midwest late Thursday and maintains control through Friday. This
brings an end to the active wet pattern and allows some sunshine to
break through mostly cloudy skies.

Drier and quiet conditions will persist into the weekend as high
pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will
remain largely precipitation-free with partly sunny to mostly
cloudy skies. A weak upper-level disturbance will introduce a
slight 20 percent chance of light rain showers Saturday night into
Sunday, though no significant accumulation is anticipated. Quiet
weather returns Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool air
maintaining overnight lows down into the upper 20s and lower
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

LIFR to IFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilities persist across
most of the area through most, if not all of the TAF period.
Some scattered, light to moderate rain continues across
portions of northeast Minnesota tonight, with a dry slot mainly
from BRD into northwest Wisconsin where drizzle will be more
predominant. Winds turn to northerly overnight in northern and
central Minnesota, and gradually from southerly in northwest
Wisconsin Tuesday morning to more variable Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Coverage of rain showers in expected to increase late
Tuesday morning to early afternoon in northwest Wisconsin, and
then expand northwestward late Tuesday afternoon and evening as
another low pressure system rotates into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon
until 2 AM CST Tuesday for Grand Portage to Silver Bay and Oak
Point to Saxon Harbor. East to southeast winds of 10 to 20 knots
will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon and evening, building
waves to 2 to 5 feet along the North Shore and 1 to 2 feet along
the South Shore. Winds ease late tonight into Tuesday morning
before turning northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
around 20 knots Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night,
maintaining waves of 1 to 3 feet. Showers will continue through
Wednesday with variable winds becoming northwest and gusty late
Wednesday into Thursday. Additional headlines may be required
during this timeframe.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Significant rainfall across the region early this week will
keep fire weather concerns minimal through midweek. Total
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will provide notable moisture to dry
soils. Southeast winds will remain strong this afternoon and
evening, gusting between 20 and 35 mph, before easing and
becoming more variable Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure
moves through. Following a cold front passage, winds shift to
the north-northwest across the area by Thursday morning.
Relative humidity will remain elevated and will persist through
midweek, followed by a transition to a drier pattern with
cooler temperatures Friday into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140>142-148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML