844
FXUS63 KDLH 200552
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1152 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and drizzle mixed with areas of freezing drizzle and snow
continue overnight into Thursday morning. Areas of fog and mist are
expected as well.

- Mostly dry forecast into the weekend. A system brushing to our
north this weekend could bring cloudy skies and very light
precipitation late Saturday into Monday but chances are minimal.

- Pattern shift expected through next week with temperatures
  falling into a more winter-like regime. Signals are still
  mixed regarding the potential for more widespread winter-like
  precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A mix of precipitation types continue to fall across the area this
afternoon as a passing upper level trough pushes eastward. It`s been
a bit of a mess through the day with localized areas of rain,
drizzle, fog, sleet, freezing drizzle, and snow all observed
depending on changing thermodynamics. Have kept this p-type
menagerie going through the overnight hours and into Thursday
morning, with the best chances for frozen precipitation over the MN
Arrowhead and portions of north-central to northeast Wisconsin. Some
very light ice and snow accumulations could be possible but
temperatures right around freezing should generally keep anything
significant at bay. On top of a moist p-type mess, dewpoint
depressions are expected to stay near zero through mid Thursday
morning, which should keep allowing for fog development. From the
Iron Range and MN Arrowhead through NW WI, there is about a 20-40%
chance for areas of dense fog with visibilities of a quarter mile or
less. Overall, the general mood for the next 18 hours will be cool,
gray, and damp.

A drier synoptic air mass along with high pressure should bring back
some sunny skies and dry weather through the day tomorrow and into
the early weekend. A low pressure system is expected to skirt along
the southern Hudson Bay coast into Sunday, which could bring some
clouds and light precipitation to our area, but chances are only
around 10-20% right now.

Ridging and southerly flow on the backside of that low should bring
temperatures well above normal into the Northland Sunday through
Tuesday, with highs reaching into the 40s and low 50s. This may be
one of the last warm blasts for the foreseeable future however as
models are in very good agreement on a downward temperature trend
beginning Wednesday Nov 26 and continuing into December. Normally,
we might expect such a drastic temperature swing to be accompanied
by a powerful winter storm. While there is decent agreement that
this colder blast will be initiated next week by a cut off low
descending from Alaska, there are mixed signals for how much
moisture this system would have to work with and the timing of
temperatures with its arrival - all of which will affect its ability
to produce any snow. It does look like the backside of this system
could have a tight pressure gradient leading to a very chilly and
blustery Thanksgiving holiday with gusts of 30-40mph+.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

IFR or lower conditions persist through midday at most locations
with low stratus, drizzle/light rain, and fog, with the lowest
visibilities at DLH. Can`t rule out some light snow mixing in
at times into early this morning in parts of the area, but
precipitation type should largely be liquid with surface
temperatures above freezing. A cold front will move west to
east across the area throughout the morning into early
afternoon, with precipitation fairly quickly coming to an end as
it does. Expect visibilities to improve by mid-morning to
midday, but ceilings will be slower to improve. MVFR ceilings
aren`t expected to return to most terminals until the afternoon,
and VFR ceilings may not arrive until this evening and possibly
after the current TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Southwest winds should continue to pick up through this evening and
turn to the northwest across Western Lake Superior. Gusts up to 25
knots and waves of 3 to 5 feet are possible from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage where a small craft advisory is in effect. Northwest
winds continue into Friday and forecast trends will need to be
monitored to see if the advisory needs to be extended.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens