673
FXUS63 KDLH 151728
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain moves through the area this morning along a cold
  front. Expect skies to clear later today with noticeably
  cooler temps compared to yesterday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
  today along a line from Pine County to Sawyer County as
  relative humidity drops into the upper 20% range and northwest
  winds gust 20 to 25 mph.

- A dry pattern settles over the area for much of the forecast period,
  with the next chance for widespread rain not arriving until
  late this upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Deceptively VFR, watch out for some LLWS mainly around the
North Shore to KDLH as an invisible gravity wave is causing some
extra wind shear and vertical motion in this vicinity. Already
saw a PIREP indicating that the models and in-situ obs agree
that the feature is there. Not confident that it`ll hit LLWS for
TAFs, but likely will be present along the North Shore.

Tossed out a Gale Warning along the North Shore east of Taconite
Harbor this evening. Hi-rez guidance suggests katabatic
enhancement to the winds there for several hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light rain showers have been moving through the CWA early this
morning as a cold front sweeps through. Most of the rain observed at
the surface early this morning has been occurring along and north of
U.S. 2, where low-level saturation has been higher compared to
locations farther south. This cold front and the associated precip
is expected to exit the CWA later this morning, with dry, cooler air
advecting into the area in the wake of this frontal passage. This
dry air will result in skies becoming clear by this afternoon across
the area.

Moderately deep mixing to around 800-850mb by the time of peak
diurnal heating this afternoon will bring at least a 50% chance for
min RH less than 35% along and south of U.S. 2. Within this portion
of the CWA, the area of greatest concern is the pine barrens of
Burnett County and eastern portions of Pine County, where there is a
40% chance for min RH today dropping below 30%. When combined with
breezy northwest winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon, this will lead
to elevated, if not near-critical, fire weather conditions today. A
Special Weather Statement is in effect today from Pine to Sawyer
Counties due to these elevated fire weather concerns, with an
expansion farther north and west potentially needed if RH trends
drier this morning.

The dry pattern that will be developing this afternoon is expected
to persist through the weekend as high pressure dominates and a
ridge slides east into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be
noticeably colder this weekend, with highs around 10-20 degrees
cooler today compared to yesterday and an additional 5-10 degrees
cooler on Sunday. The pattern remains benign until late Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning, as a shortwave trough moves from the
central Great Plains into far southern MN. Current expectations are
that this precip will largely remain south of the CWA. However,
there is still a 20-25% chance for a wintry mix along the southern
edge of the CWA. Overall impacts though are forecast to be minimal.

The next system of interest arrives into the Upper Midwest late this
week. Global models are in decent agreement regarding the
development of cutoff low pressure over California on Monday, which
will then begin propagating through the Four Corners region around
midweek and rejoin the 500mb pattern as a deep trough. This trough
will potentially develop into a Colorado Low, tapping into deep Gulf
moisture as it moves into the Midwest late Thursday into Friday.
This system does have the potential to miss our area entirely, but
global ensemble members suggest that it`s more likely than not that
portions of the CWA will see some precip. This will be a system to
keep an eye on, especially if models begin trending low pressure
centers farther north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Deceptively VFR, watch out for some LLWS mainly around the
North Shore to KDLH as an invisible gravity wave is causing some
extra wind shear and vertical motion in this vicinity. Already
saw a PIREP indicating that the models and in-situ obs agree
that the feature is there. Not confident that it`ll hit LLWS for
TAFs, but likely will be present along the North Shore. Aside
from that, flight categories will improve as a cold front exits
the area today as drier air moves in, leading to clear skies.
Breezy northwest winds gusting over 20 knots are expected at all
TAF sites this afternoon and to some degree through the entire
TAF period though there may be an overnight easing tonight. VFR
conditions through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Tossed out a Gale Warning along the North Shore east of Taconite
Harbor this evening. Hi-rez guidance suggests katabatic
enhancement to the winds there for several hours.

Northwest
winds will be increasing after sunrise today to 15 to 20 knots
with gusts to 25 to 30 knots following a cold frontal passage.
These winds are expected to generate waves of 3 to 6 feet along
the Bayfield Peninsula and Outer Apostle Islands by this evening
into tonight. There remains a chance for gales along the North
Shore above Silver Bay and in the Outer Apostle Islands this
evening, but the potential is very low (10% chance). Winds will
remain northwesterly on Sunday and slowly diminish late in the
afternoon into the evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for all nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. On
Monday, surface high pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or
less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-
     141.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Sunday for
     LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Unruh