770
FXUS63 KDLH 021121
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost and freeze conditions are expected early
  Friday morning. Additional frost and freezing temperatures are
  expected again Friday night.

- Light rain is expected Saturday into Saturday evening,
  especially along the International Border.

- Another widespread frost/freeze is expected Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

For the overnight hours and early this morning, winds are very
slowly decreasing in speed. However, they will remain elevated
for the Arrowhead and North Shore, which will largely help impede
any frost formation there. Where the winds have cut off, very
spotty temperatures down to freezing have already been observed.
Frost potential is expected to expand in coverage over more areas
towards the early commute hours this morning and especially by
sunrise. All previously issued frost and freeze headlines remain
in effect until 9 AM. After sunrise, a short-lived uptick in
gusty north-northwest winds is expected for far northern
Minnesota. Downsloping valleys on the North Shore could see a few
hours of wind gusts to 30 mph through mid-day today before winds
quickly become nearly calm by late afternoon.

For tonight, a more limited coverage of frost and freeze
conditions is expected, starting late this evening and lasting
through the pre-dawn hours Saturday. A second round of Frost
Advisories is in effect for the tip of the Arrowhead, as well as
parts of northern Wisconsin. North Shore communities right along
the shorelines are not expected to see frost, with lows in the
upper 30s compared to the low 30s for the terrain ridge and
further inland. Iron County has an 80-90% chance of seeing sub-
freezing temperatures Friday night so this is the sole county
with a Freeze Warning for Friday night. Incoming cloud cover
from the west will limit how much temperatures can bottom out
for most of northeast Minnesota, and better mixing from
increasing southerly winds creates no frost concerns for the
Brainerd Lakes to Leech Lake region Friday night.

This incoming sky cover is associated with a shortwave moving
along the International Border later Friday night into the
daytime hours of Saturday. We will see increasing light and
spotty rain shower chances of 30 to 50 percent for the Iron Range
northward early Saturday morning. Highly localized spots could
see up to a couple of tenths of an inch of rain. As the
associated cold front moves over the region later Saturday
afternoon, these rain shower chances will spread southward along
the front, finally reaching northwest Wisconsin by Saturday
evening.

A trailing and much cooler airmass aloft will move in on
northerly flow for Sunday. Breezy northerly winds gusting 25 to
30 mph from mid-day into the early evening. As these winds
slowly decrease Sunday evening, ideal radiational cooling will
set up. This brings the best chances of this entire stretch for
a freeze potential to most of the region late Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Widespread freeze warning headlines may
be needed in time for this period; the exception might still be
the Brainerd Lakes area into central MN remaining only into the
mid-30s.

Heading into the next work week, temperatures will slowly warm
as the overall flow shifts back to a southerly component. Highs
will climb into the upper 60s, scraping the 70s by mid-week.
While a few periods of very light and spotty rain showers cannot
be ruled out, there is only a 10-20 percent chance of this
occuring so the extended forecast is largely dry and pleasant.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail. There will be a few hour period of gusty
north-northwest winds at most terminals through 20Z today, as
winds gust to 20 knots...mostly for the Twin Ports into the
Arrowhead and especially along the North Shore. Winds become
calm from 21Z - 00Z this evening. Expect a shift to
southeasterly after 06Z and increasing to around 10 knots in
north-central Minnesota to end this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Northwest winds will remain elevated this morning, particularly
from Grand Marais to Two Harbors, where a Small Craft Advisory is
in effect until 1 PM CDT today for gusts up to 25 knots. Winds
will diminish this afternoon and become light tonight. Southerly
winds will increase on Saturday ahead of a warm frontal passage
Saturday morning, bringing chances for rain showers. A few
zones of Advisories may be needed Saturday daytime on the South
Shore, but the highest confidence is the Grand Portage zone
along the far northern shorelines. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind the cold front Saturday night, likely requiring
additional Small Craft Advisories for gusts of 25 to 30 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Dry conditions will continue today with northwest winds gusting
to 15 mph inland and up to 30 mph near the North Shore, while
minimum relative humidity falls into the 30 to 40 percent
range. Expect a wind shift to southerly tonight and an increase
in wind speeds early Saturday morning first over north-central
Minnesota. A passing system brings higher humidity and light
rain chances on Saturday mainly to north- central and far
northeast Minnesota....a drier airmass remains over northwest
Wisconsin into the MN/WI stateline border area through Saturday
afternoon. A few showers then may work into northwest Wisconsin
Saturday evening, but a wetting rainfall is not expected. These
Saturday PM showers will be associated with a cold frontal
passage that shifts winds back to northwesterly Saturday night
and creates gusty northwest winds by Sunday morning. Drier
conditions return on Sunday with minimum relative humidity
dropping back to 30 to 45 percent alongside breezy northwest
winds gusting 20 to 30 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010-011-019.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-018-025-
     026-033>038.
     Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     MNZ012-021.
WI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
     Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     WIZ003-009.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday for
     WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ141>143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy