257
FXUS63 KDLH 071124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk this afternoon and evening for Twin Ports
  beaches due to strong northeast winds and building waves.

- Elevated fire weather danger Sunday for areas north of the
  Iron Range in far northern MN.

- Hot and muggy conditions beset the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Heat headlines may be needed.

- Rain chances Sunday night through Monday. Severe storms
  chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Locally dense fog has developed near the Twin Ports and inland
into Carlton County per latest satellite imagery and
observations. Visibilities range from 1/4 to 3 miles. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued. Expect visibilities to
improve within the few hours following sunrise.

Have also issued a Beach Hazard Statement for Twin Ports beaches
this afternoon and evening as strong northeast winds and waves
building to 3-4 ft will lead to a high risk of rip currents.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High pressure shifts east of the region tonight with winds
turning southerly to southeasterly for Sunday. The strongest
winds will remain west of the Northland, but gusts to 20 to 25
mph will be possible in our far western areas. These winds
should help advect some low level moisture northward leading to
some minor improvement in afternoon RH values. Given these
factors, will replace the Fire Weather Watch with an SPS and
give future shifts time to re-evaluate trends. Breezy easterly
winds today on western Lake Superior will likely lead to
hazardous swimming conditions at the head of the lake.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure is leading
to a sunny and a quiet day across the region. Temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid and upper 80s by this afternoon. Dry
conditions are also on tap with Min RHs dropping into the 30s and
mid 20s. Minimal wind today will keep fire weather danger in check.
Overnight, some fog may advect in from Lake Superior with most
guidance keeping it confined along the shoreline with some spillage
at the head of the Lake into the St. Louis River and surrounding low
lying areas.

Sunday:

The upper level trough shifts east with southwest flow aloft
promoting further warming temperatures for the day. High temps are
expected to climb into the the 90s and upper 80s with cooler
temperatures remaining near Lake Superior. An emerging low pressure
in the High Plains will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient
over the region with southerly winds increasing. This increase in
winds paired with dry conditions will prompt increased fire weather
danger, particularly across our northwest counties near the
Borderlands.

Monday:

Sunday night into Monday morning will see increased chances of
shower and storm activity once again. The Northland will find itself
firmly within a warm sector, the persistent southeast flow will have
led to PWATs increasing to over 1.75". Isentropic ascent paired
with an upper level trough moving in from the south will help
to brew some showers. Some storms can`t be ruled out as some
weak MUCAPE will be in play, but bulk shear will be absent
lending itself to non severe storms expected. Model soundings do
show some deep saturation through the column which as currently
depicted in the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance may lead to
a nice soaking rain for a the Northland. One thing that will
need to be monitored is the cold front advancing across the
Northern Plains on Monday. Current guidance does not have it
breaching our borders before becoming washed out and overtaken
by strong warm air advection. But if it manages to maintain, it
will have better deep layer shear and could introduce some
severe storms across our west. Currently SPC has the threat
outside of our region, but worth watching.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

The region then becomes beset with a warm and moist air mass for
Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will climb into the 90s and our
dew points will float around the 60s and 70s with Wednesday expected
to be the hottest and muggiest day of the week. Heat indices will go
from 90F to some triple digits from the Brainerd lakes region into
NW WI. Heat headlines may be needed.

As expected with a warm and moist air mass, severe potential cannot
be ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday. MLCAPE will frequently be in
excess of 2000 J/kg. With the upper level pattern remaining
meridional we will have multiple chances for impulses to roll
through the region, if these can admix with diurnal heating we could
see strong to severe storms. We are still a little ways out to get
into the specifics but confidence is high enough with decent
ensemble agreement that SPC has us highlighted in a slight risk for
Wednesday, but would not fully rule out Tuesday`s severe potential
as well.

Late week into the weekend:

Cluster analysis shows an upper level low or wave ushering the warm
and moist air mass off to the east. However, exact timing still
remains in flux with CMCE and the GEFS being more progressive than
the ECMWF. But if we take the overall blend from all the families we
get relief from the heat starting Thursday and Friday. Precipitation
activity also has low predictability at this time range with the
Euro favoring a stalled out upper level low over the Canadian
Prairies which would increase precipitation chances. The other
families are a little less excited with a more progressive upper
level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail until tonight. Some fog and low
stratus streaming off of Lake Superior into DYT and SUW is
remaining southeast of DLH. Skies will be clear to start, with
clouds increasing later this afternoon into tonight ahead of
showers and storms with a warm front spreading north and east
into the Northland tonight into Monday. Earliest arrival of
shower and storm potential will be at BRD, with MVFR to IFR
ceilings and MVFR visibility possible with the showers and
storms. Meanwhile, later arrival of showers and storms at other
terminals means MVFR conditions with convection will also be
later to arrive tonight.

Increasing southeast winds today with gusts to around 20 knots
to locally 25 knots will be possible through the day before
diminishing after sunset. Can`t rule out some LLWS at
BRD/DLH/HIB/INL late this evening and tonight, but it is
borderline at best with some uncertainty as to how strong the
surface winds will be overnight. For now, have left LLWS mention
out of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Update:
Opted to issue Small Craft Advisories for this afternoon and
evening in the SW arm of Lake Superior and from Taconite Harbor
north to Grand Portage as northeast winds of 20-25 kt will
develop along with waves building to as high as 3-4 feet.

Previous Forecast:
Main forecast concern in the short term will be areas of dense
fog across the western arm of the lake through mid to late
morning. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the
North Shore and from the Twin Ports to Sand Island. Winds will
increase later this morning into this afternoon from the east
with gusts to around 20 knots, highest near the Twin Ports. A
few higher gusts to 25 knots will be possible as well. This will
generate waves of 2 to 4 feet at the head of the lake as well
and may lead to hazardous conditions to small craft. Winds will
remain easterly for Monday, but will top out at around 15 knots.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms then return for Monday and
Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Highs today will be in the 80s and lower 90s for most with 60s
and 70s near Lake Superior. Winds will be southerly to
southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to perhaps 25 mph,
strongest in far western areas. These southerly winds should
start to bring in a bit more low level moisture leading to
slightly better afternoon RH values with values remaining above
30%. Some areas may dip into the 25 to 30% range in Koochiching, northern
Itasca, and northern St. Louis counties, but is not expected to
be widespread. A more active weather period arrives Monday and
lasts through the week with multiple chances for wetting
rainfalls.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ140-141.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH/Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH/Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...BJH