131
FXUS63 KDLH 120809
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
309 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog early this morning will reduce visibility
  across parts of the region before dissipating by mid morning.

- Isolated showers and storms may develop today and tonight. If
  they do form, a few could be strong with small hail and gusty
  winds.

- Dry and comfortable weather for the late week before chances
  for widespread precipitation arrives late Friday into
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A cluster of storms over southeastern North Dakota are pushing
east into Minnesota early this morning. While there are not a
lot of great indications either way that these storms will
decay, the high res CAM models are doing just that with them
over the next few hours. They are riding along the northern
gradient of instability which extends east across central
Minnesota, within a zone of 40+knots of bulk shear. Forcing is
much stronger for the convective complex over eastern Nebraska,
but a lobe of that shortwave may be helping to generate this
little cluster. As long as it maintains strength over the next
hour or so, it may push into the Brainerd Lakes region around
sunrise. Otherwise, patchy fog has developed across mostly
northeast Minnesota this morning, and may also develop over
northwest Wisconsin over the next few hours. Some of this fog
may become locally dense with visibilities dropping to a quarter
mile or less. Expect the fog to gradually dissipate by mid
morning as daytime heating kicks in. High temperatures today
will reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

As we head into this afternoon and tonight, there is a chance
for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop, particularly
along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota. While instability
will be somewhat limited by dry air in the lower levels, bulk
shear values may aid in a few stronger storms. The risk of
severe storms has been reduced with the lower instability levels
in more recent model runs. These scattered shower and storm
chances will linger into the overnight hours before tapering
off.

By Thursday morning, high pressure will build across the Upper
Midwest, ushering in clearing skies and comfortable conditions
for Thursday, Thursday night and Friday daytime. High
temperatures for both Thursday and Friday will generally sit in
the comfortable mid 70s to low 80s across the area.

Precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday remain likely
as an upper level shortwave pushes across the region, drawing
moisture into the area. Cloud cover will thicken during the
afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a widespread
precipitation event overnight into Saturday. At this time,
widespread severe weather is not anticipated with this weekend
system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland for the
rest of today, though elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead
will maintain hazy skies. Weather conditions remain mostly quiet
through the evening, but atmospheric moisture and light winds
will allow patchy fog to develop after midnight. Fog will be
concentrated mainly across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead
and northwest Wisconsin, where some patches of dense fog with
visibilities under one mile are possible during the early
morning hours.

Early morning fog will slowly dissipate on Wednesday, giving way to
partly sunny skies. Guidance shows potential for isolated
thunderstorm development, particularly along Highway 2 and
southward. Low level lapse rates will be high, but this layer
is also shallow overall. This will lead to little instability
overall for the storms to tap into. Lingering dry air will also
prevent some precipitation from reaching the ground. Finally, high-
resolution forecast models vary on convective coverage, but of
storms that do materialize, a few could become strong to
severe. The main threats with the strongest storms will be
localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one
inch in diameter.

Any lingering convection will taper off early Thursday morning,
giving way to high pressure building across the Upper Midwest.
This surface ridge will deliver quiet weather once again along
with drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies
across the region. These conditions will linger into Friday
daytime under partly sunny skies.

Weather patterns will transition Friday night as an upper-level trough
moves over the region, tapping into moisture drawn from the
south. Cloud cover will steadily increase, setting the stage for
widespread precipitation across the Northland. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms will spread into the area late Friday
night and continue through Saturday as dynamic low pressure
moves directly across the region. Storms are not expected to be
severe at this time.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday night as the
storm system departs to the east. High pressure will build back into
the Upper Midwest on Sunday, leading to decreasing cloud cover and a
return to partly sunny skies. Dry and comfortable weather will
persist across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for
the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions with calm to light winds as of issuance time.
Once again, fog is the main concern for the overnight time
frame. Fog potential is highest in the 08-13Z timeframe at
KDLH/KHIB/KHYR/KINL/KBRD where IFR visibility and potentially
LIFR conditions are expected. Fog should dissipate and
visibilities to improve by 13z for all sites. Once the fog
dissipates, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of
the TAF period. Smoke aloft will continue to create hazy skies
throughout the TAF period. There are some small chances for
evening shower/storm chances mainly for KBRD which have been
included with VCTS/VCSH groups.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light winds under 10 knots and waves of 1 foot or less will
persist across the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior
through Thursday night. Somewhat variable winds today will
gradually shift to the northeast on Thursday, then gradually
increase for Friday. Winds may increase enough to cause building
waves into the southwest arm of the lake and may produce
hazardous conditions for Small Craft. Rain shower and storm
chances will return to the lake late Friday into Saturday.For
the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light northerly winds under 10 mph will continue today, with
minimum relative humidity values dropping to between 40 and 50
percent this afternoon under hazy skies. Overnight humidity
recoveries will continue to be excellent as temperatures drop
into the 50s. A slight chance of showers and storms exists later
today and tonight. Thursday will be similar to today, but
slightly drier with lower precipitation chances. Friday more
moisture moves into the region with RH values remaining above 40
percent, and winds increasing out of the east to northeast. The
next widespread wetting rain chance will arrive Friday night and
continue into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE