922
FXUS63 KDLH 212347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
647 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms possible
  this afternoon and evening, with the best chance for the
  Borderlands and MN Arrowhead.

- Fairly dry and sunny weekend on tap with lower dewpoints,
  fairly average temperatures, and a northwest breeze. Sunday
  morning could be chilly with morning lows in the 40s.

- Next chance of precipitation early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A low pressure system to our north continues to influence our
weather today. A second cold front is expected to drop down into the
Northland from western Ontario this afternoon and evening bringing a
chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While there is
a little bubble of instability ahead and along with this front,
shear is somewhat limited around 20-30knots. No severe storms are
expected, but a couple stronger storms capable of producing up to
penny size hail are possible, especially for the Borderlands and MN
Arrowhead. Any precipitation activity should come to an end through
the evening and overnight.

Into the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to morph into an
elongated cut off upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and
eastern Ontario. This will bring northwesterly flow and drier air
back into our region. Temperatures should largely be around normal
during the day. Lower dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies could
lead to a chilly night Saturday into Sunday morning with overnight
lows in the 40s possible - a couple overachieving localized cold
spots might see some high 30s again.

Global models continue to point towards another upper level trough
with a preceding shortwave wandering across the Canadian Plains and
into our neck of the woods early next week.  This could bring
scattered rain chances back to the Northland Monday night into
Wednesday. Depending on how these chances play out, areas of the
Northland will likely continue to deal with the ongoing drought
rigmarole as the best rainfall amounts could be hit or miss.
Temperatures stay around average through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A broken line of showers and storms ahead of a cold front is
pushing southward this evening. It is currently raining at HIB,
and expect the line to move through DLH and BRD through 03Z. A
wind gust to 20kts could be possible. Not as confident in
storms making it to HYR, with activity already showing a
weakening trend, but have included a tempo for SHRA from
02-04Z.

Behind this line, skies will clear and there could be patchy fog
overnight. Guidance is showing a 10-20% chance of vis below 1
mile at DLH and HYR. Will see how winds diminish behind this
line, before including fog at DLH. With rain occurring later at
HYR, will include MVFR vis there. Gusty northwesterly winds
increase Saturday morning, with gusts to 20kts possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Light westerly winds are expected today and Saturday, with some
afternoon gusts of 10-15knots possible. Sunday, expect north to
northeasterly winds overnight, becoming an onshore lake breeze in
the afternoon. There could be some scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, but no severe
weather is expected. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight tonight
into Saturday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area this
afternoon and evening. This could bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms as it arrives, most likely for northern MN and the
Borderlands. No severe weather is expected, but a couple stronger
storms are possible. As that front passes, northwesterly flow and
drier air return. Expect afternoon RH on Saturday and Sunday to fall
into the 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible,
driest on Sunday. Some gustier post-frontal northwest winds are
possible on Saturday with afternoon sustained winds of 8-12mph and
gusts of 15-20mph. Winds should be fairly light on Sunday. Moisture
should return into Monday/Tuesday as our next chance of rain arrives
early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens