320
FXUS63 KDLH 231129
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
629 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next chance for showers and storms will be late Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and
  evening with the passage of a cold front.

- Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure settling into the area this morning has
made good radiational cooling conditions across the Northland.
Fog has already developed in a few of our more fog prone
locations this morning, and we are likely to see additional
development through early Sunday morning. Any morning fog will
quickly burn off after sunrise on Sunday, giving way to a very
pleasant and quiet late August day. The high pressure will
providing mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds. Minimum
relative humidity values will dip into the 30 to 40 percent
range during the afternoon hours. Tonight will feature another
round of mostly clear skies and chilly overnight low
temperatures in the forties with a few locations possibly
dipping into the upper 30s.

Late Sunday night into Monday daytime, we will have a leading
wave of elevated warm air advection and a warm front pass west
to east across the area. Some models are producing showers and
storms with it, but the low level dry air appears to be too
stout to allow any precipitation to reach the ground. Also, most
models are completely dry for us on Monday, and have decided to
leave the forecast dry for now. I do expect an increase in
cloud cover and perhaps some elevated radar echoes, but that dry
air is likely to keep the low levels dry.

Precipitation chances increase as the main upper level
shortwave moves across the area late Monday night through
Wednesday. Monday night into early Tuesday we have some elevated
instability, so we will likely have some rumbles of thunder
overnight, but am not concerned for severe storms. We do have an
area of Marginal severe risk just to our west from SPC, but
suspect this may shift farther west based on the latest models.
If we get any strong storms, they would be towards Tuesday
morning. Tuesday will be warm and more humid, with some surface
based instability developing during the afternoon and evening
hours. Then, just as the upper level shortwave moves across the
area and deep layer shear parameters increase, I expect another
wave of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area,
which will have the potential for strong to severe storms. While
things look interesting now, we will have to monitor for timing
or other changes that may change this. Showers and non-severe
storms will redevelop across the area on Wednesday in the
cyclonic flow behind the upper level shortwave. Wednesday and
Thursday will be cooler again. The cyclonic flow may help to
generate isolated showers again on Thursday, though the incoming
dry air may quash them. We currently have a dry forecast, but
if we have a bit more moisture, that may change.

High pressure and northwest flow aloft return for the latter
portions of the work week, bringing a return to dry conditions
across the Northland for Thursday into Friday. Precipitation
chances remain below fifteen percent through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Some patchy MVFR to LIFR fog and dense fog early this morning,
with with BRD and HIB seeing the worst conditions in fog. The
fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise this morning
in the 12-14Z timeframe. VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies
develop today along with light winds under high pressure. There
is some signal for patchy fog/dense fog development again
tonight, with the best probabilities at HIB and HYR, though most
terminals may see at least some fog.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Northwest winds gusting up to twenty knots will ease overnight
into Sunday morning over the nearshore waters of western Lake
Superior, with waves subsiding to one to two feet. Winds to
become light and variable during the day on Sunday as high
pressure settles over the area. The nearly calm winds linger
overnight before gradually turning southeast on Monday, but
generally remaining under 10 knots through the day. Waves to
generally be 1 foot or less Sunday night and Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Winds will be significantly weaker today than yesterday as a
ridge of high pressure builds into the area. For most areas,
even wind gusts will be less than 10 mph. Minimum relative
humidity will drop a bit lower to 30 to 40 percent. A few places
could dip below 30 percent. Relative humidity remains low for
northwest Wisconsin on Monday, but northern Minnesota RH values
will increase to over 35 percent. Winds will become southerly
and may gust around 10 mph during the afternoon. Shower and
thunderstorm chances increase for Monday night through
Wednesday, with RH values remaining above 40 percent both days.
Precipitation chances are highest along and north of the Iron
Range, but most areas have at least a 40 percent chance of
measurable rainfall.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE