654
FXUS63 KDLH 140108
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
808 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost tonight into Saturday morning in far northeast
  Minnesota.

- Rain showers continuing for the Brainerd Lakes area east into
  northwest Wisconsin tonight into Saturday.

- Small Craft Advisories for portions of western Lake Superior
  today into Saturday for winds and building waves.

- Multiple chances for thunderstorms next week. A day or two
  with strong to severe thunderstorms is expected at some point
  next week.

- Temperatures gradually warm next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

Issued at 808 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Updated PoPs tonight through Sunday morning. Models continue to
spread measurable precipitation too far north, particularly the
NBM. A weak nocturnal southerly low-level jet is forecast to
develop tonight and strengthen moisture flux into Pine, Burnett,
Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties. There are already signs
the precipitation from Willmar, MN to Medford, WI is advancing
northward. Expect this trend to continue through 08Z. Rain
showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, will move into
southern portions of the forecast area, generally south of a
Hinckley to Park Falls line and then slide eastward through
Saturday morning. It`s doubtful the precipitation will push
farther north than a Walker to Two Harbors line.

Another round of precipitation is possible Saturday night and
Sunday as another weak LLJ develops over central Minnesota and
west-central Wisconsin. Lowered PoPs across the Iron Range and
the Borderlands to reflect the forcing staying well to the south
of those areas.

Remainder of the forecast is unchanged.

PREV UPDATE...Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Issued a Frost Advisory for Cook and northern Lake counties for
tonight into Saturday morning with good radiational cooling
expected. Will monitor trends through the evening should the
Frost Advisory need to be expanded into portions of St. Louis
and Koochiching counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

After a brief lull in rain shower activity from the Brainerd
Lakes area east into northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and
evening, rain showers are expected to increase in coverage once
again for these areas along the low level baroclinic zone late
tonight and continue into Saturday. Overall, it will be a cool
mid June day across the Northland on Saturday with easterly flow
between surface high pressure over Lake Superior and low
pressure across the Plains. In fact, downwind areas from Lake
Superior will likely only warm into the 50s, with rather breezy
northeast winds especially for the Twin Ports with northeast
winds funneling towards the head of the Lake. Stratus and some
fog in the higher elevations of the Twin Ports also seems likely
for this setup late tonight and Saturday.

Looking ahead to next week, more of a summer time pattern
setups with low amplitude upper level ridging Sunday, breaking
down to more zonal flow as a series of shortwaves propagate into
the central US Monday through Wednesday, with a likely building
upper level ridge late next week. The mid level jet along the
crest of the central US ridge is also expected to strengthen
some late next week, which points to a possible ring of fire
setup for convection late next week across the northern portions
of the Midwest along the northern periphery of the increasing
moisture and buoyancy and relatively lower capping, with better
shear with the mid level jet. AI and ML severe probabilistic
guidance all show multiple chances for severe weather across the
Upper Midwest next week. The severe potential for northwest
Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota next week will be tied to how
quickly and how far north the greater moisture and buoyancy
build through the week, and the timing of lower predictability
waves as background forcing. Overall, it will be warmer with
widespread highs in the 70s and lower 80s, with increasing
humidity and thunderstorm and severe thunderstorm potential that
match expectations for mid to late June in the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Clouds and light rain showers will continue to affect BRD and
HYR tonight and early Saturday morning. Ceilings will gradually
lower to IFR tonight as a southerly low-level jet develops
regenerates precipitation. Visibility should decrease to MVFR or
IFR in rain. The lower ceilings and perhaps some fog and mist
will drift northward to DLH and HIB overnight. Ceilings at DLH
will drop to IFR in part due to the northward moving moisture
from the south and also from contributions from Lake Superior.
The rain showers will move eastward out of the terminals
Saturday. Low ceilings will persist through much of the day. INL
is the exception as that site is far enough north to stay VFR
through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Northeast winds with gusts to 25 kts and waves of 3 to 6 feet
will continue from Two Harbors through Duluth and Port Wing
through Saturday morning, and a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect until 1 pm CDT Saturday. This may need to be expanded
further into the afternoon Saturday for waves from the
prolonged northeast wind event. Elsewhere, from Taconite Harbor
to Two Harbors, and most of the South Shore, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect until 5 am Saturday morning for waves of 2
to 4 feet and northeast wind gusts of 20-25kts. Fog may, a 30
to 50 percent chance, develop across portions of western Lake
Superior Saturday night into Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ012-021.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ142-143-
     146-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PA/Huyck
DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...PA