563
FXUS63 KDLH 170517
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms expected to ramp up in the next few hours. Main
  hazards will be large hail, damaging winds, and a few
  tornadoes transitioning to more of a damaging wind and
  marginal tornado threat in the evening.

- A few diurnal chances for showers and storms through the mid
  week before another cold front brings more widespread chances
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A surge of warm, humid air this weekend will lead to
  thunderstorms on Saturday and then a hot, sticky Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Some clearing over the Brainerd Lakes area has lead to increased
instability to where it was expected (up to 2000 J/kg) and wind
shear 30-40 kts with sufficient low level turning has increased
the tornado threat across that area. Plus, the high CAPE and
large hail growth zone could lead to some large hail with these
storms as well. Later on in the evening, however, we will lose
the ideal low level turning and some instability as the storms
move east. The threat for very large hail (up to 2 inches) will
diminish, and the threat for large hail (up to 1.25 inches),
damaging winds, and a marginal threat for tornados continue.

Due to wrap around precipitation at the top of the system
moving through northern Minnesota, portions of the Iron Range
and the Arrowhead will see higher rainfall totals from the
abundance of moisture wrapping around the low. Exactly how much
will fall at any given location will depend on the path and
longevity of the convection on the north side of the low.
Isolated areas over an inch is possible, though most will get a
half to three quarters of an inch.

Continued northwest flow and a few rounds of shortwaves will
lead to scattered precipitation into the mid week. These showers
and storms won`t be particularly exciting, and coverage across
the area will likely be along the International Border and
towards central Minnesota/Wisconsin. Wednesday into Thursday, a
deeper upper level trough will pull cool air down from Canada to
initiate showers and storms across the area. Higher instability
and wind shear is shown across global models, particularly
across northwest Wisconsin Thursday afternoon, could lead to
some stronger storms.

Friday night into Saturday, a warm front begins to move
northeast into our area. With this will come another chance for
thunderstorms at the front end of a good LLJ throughout the
night. Sunday will see temperatures in the upper 80s behind the
warm front, and dewpoints in the 60s will make it feel hot and
sticky.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A soupy night with a lot of low clouds. Satellite shows a lot of
low stratus, but wherever holes develop in the stratus, fog then
becomes a quick possibility with all of the low level moisture
from the past system. Right now, played the TAFs with only hints
of low visibilities given the prevalence of stratus. By 12Z,
conditions should improve rapidly to VFR with daytime heating.
Winds decreasing through the period and remaining westerly.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Marine weather is quiet after today, showers and storms will
move over Lake Superior this evening, with the largest threats
being strong winds and cloud-to-water lightning. On and off
chances for general thunderstorms continue for the next couple
days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...KML