455
FXUS63 KDLH 032331
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
531 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain continues through Wednesday evening, lingering into
  Thursday for portions of NW WI. Additional rainfall amounts
  of another 0.5-2" are possible, with the heaviest rates during
  the day Wednesday. Depending on temperatures, some snowflakes
  could make an appearance along the South Shore Thursday
  evening.

- Drier and cooler weather expected for the end of the week into
  the weekend.

- Low end (15-25%) chances for some light precipitation Sunday
  along a mostly dry cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our expected secondary low pressure system is steadily moving
its way north today, advancing another large rain shield into
the Northland. Plentiful synoptic moisture lingering from our
first system will ensure that precipitation is unlikely to ever
fully come to an end, so most of the area should expect areas of
fog, mist, and drizzle before a changeover back to steady rain.
We should see the TROWAL of this system rotate over our area
through the day Wednesday, bringing another all day deluge. Some
heavier rainfall rates, similar to what we saw yesterday
afternoon, will be possible through the day Wednesday as an area
of robust lift and efficient precipitation making processes
stall over the area. Across the Northland, an additional 0.5-2"
of rain is possible, with the greatest amounts for the MN
Arrowhead and South Shore.

In the upper levels, the cut-off low over this second system should
be enveloped into a 500mb trough extending down from Hudson Bay into
Thursday, allowing it to steadily progress out of the area. With so
much moisture lingering, rain may be slow to fully depart the area,
with rain persisting in NW WI through much of the day Thursday. As
some cooler and drier air becomes dominant, most precipitation
should come to an end Thursday afternoon and evening. The exception
should be along the South Shore where some cooler 850mb temperatures
and lake warmth/moisture will keep lake effect precipitation going
Thursday evening into very early Friday morning. Depending on how
fast surface temperatures can cool, some areas in the higher terrain
of Ashland and Iron Counties may be candidates to see some
snowflakes. Friday morning could sport some very minimal snowfall
accumulations on elevated surfaces in those areas, should the
precipitation type changeover come to fruition.

On the other side of the lake, the backside of this system will
result in breezy northerly winds, exacerbated along the North Shore
terrain ridge. Some gusts of 40-45mph are possible for portions of
Cook and Lake County Thursday morning.

High pressure and drier air should make for a fairly benign second
half of the forecast. Temperatures cool Thursday-Saturday with highs
in the 40s and lows well below freezing. A very gradual warm up will
arrive to the area late this weekend into early next week. An upper
level shortwave passes a cold front across the area Sunday before
that warm up, but most solutions keep it pretty dry at this point.
Some sprinkles or widely scattered showers could be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Persistent IFR to LIFR ceilings and IFR to MVFR visibilities are
expected for the majority of the TAF period as a low pressure
system continues to sit over the area and bring areas of rain
and fog, with the highest rainfall accumulations and moderate to
locally heavy rain rates during daytime Wednesday. North to
northwest winds gradually veer to the north-northeast tonight
into early Wednesday and then back to northerly Wednesday
afternoon with gusts of 15-25 kts in northeast Minnesota and
10-18 kts in northwest Wisconsin. These wind gusts will be
strongest daytime Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Several periods of strong winds are expected over the next couple of
days, leading to areas of Small Craft Advisories. Northeast winds
pick up overnight into Wednesday morning with gusts up to 25 knots
likely. As those winds subside Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, another round of strong winds will come in from the north.
Along the North Shore between Grand Marais and Grand Portage, we are
not expecting a notable pause in between these two rounds of
stronger winds and the Small Craft Advisory for this zone has been
extended to go from this evening all the way through early Friday
morning. A period of gale force gusts is possible in this zone
Thursday morning, and the advisory may need to be upgraded.
Elsewhere, a notable break in between rounds of stronger winds will
likely mean waiting until the current Small Craft Advisory for
northeast winds expires, and then we`ll issue another for the
northerlies. Expect widespread rain and areas of fog through
Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread rain continues at least through Wednesday morning
across the region. Lingering rain could continue in NW WI through
Thursday, with some light lake effect rain and snow possible for
portions of the South Shore into early Friday morning. Some gusty
northeast to north winds are possible Wednesday, gusting 15-25mph,
and then another round of strong winds from the north-northwest are
expected Thursday, with some gusts of 25-40mph, strongest along the
North Shore. Drier, cooler, and calmer conditions are expected for
Friday and Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
     LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ141>147.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens