721
FXUS63 KDLH 011126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Thursday
  night into Friday morning.

- A chance for rain on Saturday, especially along the
  International Border.

- Another widespread frost/freeze is likely Sunday night into
  Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front is dropping southeastward through northeast Minnesota
early this morning, bringing in a much drier airmass with dewpoints
falling into the upper 40s. Patchy dense fog across inland northwest
Wisconsin will last through 5 AM before the front clears it out.
Behind the front, northwest winds will increase to around 10 mph
and gust 20 to 25 mph today. This will allow cooler temperatures
to filter in, returning closer to normal, though still remaining
slightly above normal for northwest Wisconsin. A weak disturbance
passing through northwest Ontario later this afternoon and evening
will create an area of clouds over the Minnesota Borderlands. Any
rain showers associated with this feature look to remain north of
the International Border.

A colder airmass aloft and building surface high pressure into
north-central Minnesota tonight will create conditions for widespread
frost and limited pockets of sub-freezing temperatures into early
Friday morning. The lingering cloud cover towards midnight may delay
cooling late this evening for the Minnesota Borderlands, but
temperatures are expected to drop quickly as those clouds from the
passing Ontario disturbance move eastward overnight. A Freeze Warning
is in effect for the Iron Range and Minnesota Borderlands for late
tonight into Friday morning. Frost Advisories also cover much of northwest
Wisconsin and other parts of northern Minnesota. Friday will
feature dry and seasonable temperatures across the region.
Another period of frost and pockets of sub-freezing temperatures
is expected into early Saturday morning, though more limited in
areal coverage. Frost headlines may be needed again Friday night for
the Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin.

An incoming shortwave trough passing along the International Border
late Friday night will bring increasing scattered rain showers for
north-central Minnesota early Saturday morning. These showers will
spread eastward into the Arrowhead by daylight Saturday morning. This
Saturday rainfall has continued to trend northward over the last 24
hours, with mainly areas of far northern Minnesota north of US
Highway 2 being affected by light and spotty rain showers through
Saturday afternoon. A few isolated showers cannot be completely ruled
out further south into northwest Wisconsin that late afternoon
and evening though.

The rain showers will end by Saturday evening as dry weather sets up
once again. The next round of even colder air will move in behind an
incoming cold front on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday morning
features an even more likely chance of sub-freezing temperatures
across the Northland, and freeze headlines will very likely be needed
to start the next work week. Finally, a warmer air mass moves back
into the region from Tuesday through the middle of next week. This
will bring a return of areawide above normal temperatures, even
reaching around 70 degrees by Wednesday, alongside only a 10 percent
chance of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail today under breezy daytime winds gusting
20 to 25 knots. A passing weak system in northwest Ontario later
today creates low-end VFR cumulus for the Borderlands this
afternoon and evening hours before clearing after 03Z Fri from
west to east. All rain showers remain north of the International
Border though with that weak system.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front will sweep across Western Lake Superior early this
morning, causing winds to shift to the west-northwest. Wind
speeds will increase through the day, with gusts reaching 20 to
25 knots by the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
from this afternoon through this evening for most nearshore
zones due to these gusty winds and building waves of 1 to 2
feet. Winds will diminish by Friday mid to late morning tonight
as high pressure builds in, keeping conditions quiet through
Friday before southerly winds increase on Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A drier airmass is moving into the region today behind a passing
cold front. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the
28 to 38 percent range across northwest Wisconsin, and 35 to 50
percent in northeast Minnesota. Northwest winds will be breezy,
gusting 15 to 25 mph. Friday will see lighter winds but
similarly dry humidity. A weak disturbance moves through
northern Minnesota Saturday and brings light and spotty rain
showers during the daytime Saturday; also expect a notable
gradient in minimum relative humidity for far eastern Minnesota
where a drier airmass will be lingering into northwest
Wisconsin that day. A cold front brings another day of breezy
northwest winds and dry air on Sunday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ010-011-019.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     MNZ012-018-026-035.
WI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for
     WIZ001>004-007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140>147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT
     this evening for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy