350
FXUS63 KDLH 062358
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
658 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive this evening across
  the west. More widespread rainfall arrives late tomorrow and
  lingers through Tuesday.

- Marginal risk of severe storms late Monday into Tuesday
  morning. There remains potential for redevelopment of strong
  to severe storms Tuesday afternoon as well.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior
  this week, especially Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current Conditions:

Surface high pressure is moving off to the east with southerly flow
returning across the region. Aloft we still have a ridge in place.
Embedded in the flow aloft there are several impulses rounding the
ridge axis over the Red River Valley and spilling over into the
Northland. Presently this is manifesting as some light echoes on the
radar, however, not seeing any signs via webcams or sensors that
this activity is making it to the ground. High res guidance is
widely scattered with its depiction of simulated radar reflectivity
through the afternoon and beyond. Which is to be expected in the
weakly forced regime we find ourselves in. Overall, largely expect
most the region to stay dry with some isolated light rain showers at
times.

Tonight/Labor Day.

Overnight, the ridge axis shifts further east towards the Great
Lakes as a shortwave advances out of the Northern Plains.
Moisture profiles begin to saturate leading to a slight increase
in PoPs for the overnight and early morning hours across
northern MN. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but
the environment is lacking deep layer shear which will keep
storms on the tame side. Through the remainder of the holiday
the Northland will find itself in the warm sector of an
approaching system in the Northern Rockies. The continued warm
air advection and isentropic forcing may lead to off and on rain
chances through the day with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures
will be in the 70s with a few low 80s possible. Additionally,
the southerly winds will see our dew points climb into the upper
60s by the afternoon.

Late Labor Day into Tuesday:

Large scale ascent is expected to increase late Labor Day and
through Tuesday morning. An upper level trough over the Canadian
Prairies pushes the ridge completely out of the Northland opening the
door for southwesterly flow to stream back into the region. One of
the unique aspects of this incoming set up is the high PWATs that
the system will have access to. The IVT plots would suggest
contributions from both the the Gulf and Hurricane Marie.
Climatology puts the incoming PWATs near the max of climatology.
Despite this wealth of moisture, most of the guidance keeps QPF
fairly moderated. EFI is mainly honing in on areas north of the
International Border as being the hotpots for heavy rainfall,
likely coinciding with the warm frontal boundary. While we may
not be the recipients of the highest rain totals we should still
see our fair share with current guidance suggesting around an
1" for most of MN with lower amounts across the Arrowhead and NW
WI.

Severe chances start to increase late Monday as well with an upper
level jet nudging in from the southwest. Instability may be limited
with high PWATs and lack of mid level lapse rates. With these meager
ingredients in play the SPC has out western counties outlined in a
marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5). Primary hazard would likely
be hail the size of quarters with damaging winds being a secondary
threat. Storm activity could be persistent into Tuesday as a low
level jet strengthens across the Midwest.

Tuesday will see ongoing showers and storms through the morning. The
upper level low over the Canadian Prairies will strengthen with a
noticeable dry slot sweeping in behind the cold front set to move
through the region. Depending on how quickly the front advances
east the region we could have some lingering severe storm
threat into NW WI in the afternoon.

Wed - Fri:

On Wednesday the upper level low spins into the Hudson Bay with
persistent cyclonic flow aloft over the region. Low level moisture
still looks favorable with mid and upper level moisture questionable
at the moment. The pattern looks pretty similar to the ones we get
with isolated showers and more widespread drizzle. Overall,
expecting a cloudy day with much cooler temperatures. Highs may not
climb out of the 70s in northern MN with NW WI in the mid and low
70s. Thursday looks to be the quietest weather day in the upcoming
week with surface high pressure gliding across the Midwest. Rain
chances look to return Friday as another front cross through the
Northland.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Numerous rain showers and isolated general thunderstorms are
expected to move into north-central Minnesota later this
evening, and may impact KBRD to KINL primarily into tonight.
THere is only low to moderate confidence in this play out though
given the transient and slow moving nature of the ongoing storms
in northwest Minnesota. A few sites could see IFR ceilings and
MVFR visibility after 09Z tonight that lasts into mid-morning
Monday. Southeast winds become breezy Monday daytime, gusting 20
to 25 knots areawide. Expect widely scattered rain showers
tomorrow, with building thunderstorm chances Monday evening and
beyond this current TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Easterly winds across Lake Superior around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will
gradually increase late Monday and slowly turn to out of the south.
By Monday night widespread wind gusts of 30 kts are expected out of
the southwest. Gales will be possible from Grand Portage to Grand
Marais. The Gale threat diminishes Tuesday afternoon but will likely
still need a Small Craft. Widespread Gales across all the Near Shore
waters still looks likely for Wednesday. Additionally, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late Monday through Tuesday
evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Low fire weather concerns through most of the forecast. Active
weather pattern with high dew points back across the region through
midweek. Rain totals range from around an 1" across MN with less
amounts expected across the Arrowhead and into NW WI. The heaviest
rainfall is expected Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, there
will be the risk of strong to severe storms late Monday into Tuesday
and again Tuesday afternoon.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday
     for LSZ121-141>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for
     LSZ140.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt