045
FXUS63 KDLH 121826
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
126 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very slight chance for some sprinkles and light rain showers
tonight into early Thursday morning.

- Next best chance for precipitation Friday night into Saturday with
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms possible across the
Northland.

- Near normal temperatures persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Another round of fairly lackluster weather continues today. A
cumulus field to the north of the International Border is producing
some scattered rain showers in Ontario, which does have a low
(<10%) chance to bleed over the border this afternoon and
evening. This would lead to 0.01" of rain or less if it does
occur. A heavier band of wildfire smoke aloft is preventing more
cumulus fields from developing across a good portion of the
Northland today.

Overnight, a slug of moisture from the Dakotas is expected to move
over central MN and WI, which could prompt some areas of scattered
rain showers in the Northland, with the highest chances along the
southern border of the CWA from the Brainerd Lakes area into NW WI.
No severe weather is expected and even producing any thunderstorms
might be tough. There is a lot of dry air preceding any of this
precipitation and it will be losing support as it moves into the
Northland, so it is likely that this activity would be scattered in
nature with light rainfall amounts. As that area of moisture and
associated weak shortwave push east through the day Thursday, it
will likely continue to lead to areas of clouds and could even
prompt a couple afternoon showers but confidence is very low on this
occurring. No severe weather nor heavy rainfall is expected.

Late week into the weekend, the upper level ridge to our south
shifts east, with a shortwave disturbance running along the top of
it. This is expected to bring an area of showers and thunderstorms
to the Northland. Global ensembles show that overall this will
probably be a mostly light rain for most - up to a couple tenths of
an inch. However, if some thunderstorms are able to embed, a few
lucky folks could see locally higher amounts around an inch. At this
point, not expecting any severe weather at this time. There is some
lingering uncertainty regarding the timing of this precipitation,
which largely has to do with the timing of the broader ridge
shifting east. Some models bring it in as early as Friday evening
while others a much more delayed more into Saturday afternoon.

As we remain on the north side of the ridge through the 7 day
period, expect temperatures to stay largely right around normal with
high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
light winds. Some patchy fog is possible a HIB overnight. Some light
scattered rain showers could impact BRD early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light onshore breezes continue today and Thursday. A couple stronger
gusts up to 15 knots could be possible Thursday afternoon at the
head of the Lake. Some patchy dense marine fog is possible through
the week, especially along the North Shore where the coldest water
temperatures are. Much stronger northeast winds are expected to
build Friday, with gusts up to 25 knots possible. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed. Areas of rain showers and thunderstorms will
be possible Friday evening into Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Drier weather continues through the rest of the week with afternoon
RH dropping into the 35-45% range each day. There could be
some sprinkles to scattered rain showers overnight tonight into
Thursday morning, but any accumulations are likely to be less
than a tenth of an inch. The best chance for that precipitation
is from the Brainerd Lakes area into NW WI. Winds should remain
fairly light, turning to become northeasterly Thursday with a
few afternoon gusts up to 15 mph possible. Friday, expect
easterly winds to continue with stronger afternoon gusts,
especially along Lake Superior. Friday night into Saturday, a
better chance for more widespread rain arrives with areas of
rain showers and thunderstorms, but exact details are yet
unclear.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens
FIRE WEATHER...Levens