082
FXUS63 KDLH 301126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northeast gale-force wind gusts to 40 mph for western
  Lake Superior and the adjacent coasts from Silver Bay to Two
  Harbors to Duluth and Superior to Port Wing today.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are forecast today for the
  beaches of Duluth and Superior due to building waves and a
  high risk of rip currents.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur nearly every
  day from today into next week across portions of northeast
  Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as dry weather continues.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Strong northeasterly winds across western Lake Superior are
forecast today in a favorable setup with surface high pressure
building across the Great Lakes with developing low pressure
across the Central and Northern Plains. Gales are likely from
Two Harbors through Duluth and Superior to Port Wing, with
conditions hazardous to small craft elsewhere. With strong
northeast winds and building waves, a High Swim Risk is expected
today for Wisconsin and Minnesota Point beaches and a Beach
Hazard Statement is in effect. With strong northeast winds,
temperatures today will be much cooler near Lake Superior with
highs only in the upper 50s to the lower 60s immediately along
the lake, and upper 60s to the lower 70s a bit further inland by
a few miles. The one exception will be a stronger inland push
from Lake Superior that may reach into northern portions of Pine
county given the strong northeast winds at the head of the lake.

Elsewhere today across northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin, a warm day is expected with widespread high
temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The warmest
locations will be across Koochiching county where deeper mixing
will support high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Near
critical fire weather conditions are expected away from Lake
Superior, especially across northeast Minnesota, with the warm
temperatures, dry fuels, low relative humidity, and southeast
winds sustained around 10-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

The remainder of the forecast through next week remains on track
favoring above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions
as the omega blocking pattern breaks downs to quasi-zonal flow
aloft, with a re-amplification of the upper level ridge favored
by the global ensembles late next week. Widespread high
temperatures in the 70s and 80s are forecast away from Lake
Superior with a daily likelihood of near critical fire weather
conditions across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin with a lack of rain and dry fuels. The next best
chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday into
Thursday with the break down of the omega blocking ridge.
However, confidence is only modest in the evolution of the Upper
Midwest precipitation patterns associated with this weakening
of the ridge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

For the rest of the day, record to near-record high
temperatures are expected across the Northland. We are barely
nicking Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon, but we held off
on an advisory because of the high clouds streaming overhead
working against the heating. Despite the clouds, it will feel
very hot. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated storms this
afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes which may also eat into
the heating. Tonight, a backdoor cold front will sweep into the
region, which will increase winds significantly, especially over
Lake Superior.

Heading into Saturday, that backdoor cold front will continue to
push through the area. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated
storms again tomorrow along this boundary. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler near Lake Superior, staying in the 60s, while
inland areas still reach the 80s. The big story tomorrow will be
the winds on the lake. We have upgraded to a Gale Warning for
the Twin Ports largely based on the HRRR and HREF and gut models
with our general bias to go too low over the waters.

For Sunday and Monday, dry conditions continue with near-critical
fire weather expected nearly every day as relative humidity falls
below 25 percent. High pressure settles back over the Great Lakes,
keeping Sunday dry with highs in the 70s near the lake and 80s
further inland. No widespread soaking rainfall is expected. Breezy
southeast winds will persist.

The long term forecast for Tuesday through Thursday keeps our
temperatures well above normal across the region. The upper level
pattern maintains a stubborn ridge, though a few weak ripples
could spark scattered showers and storms each afternoon. We are
closely monitoring the extended period, as the Climate Prediction
Center has highlighted a moderate risk for excessive heat from
June 6th through the 8th. The stagnant heat will be the primary
story through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions across the region through the TAF period. High clouds
aloft will remain scattered to broken in coverage. Southeast winds
through the day with a Lake breeze spreading in from the east later
this afternoon and evening. The strongest winds will be out of the
east for DLH.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Strong northeasterly winds across western Lake Superior are
forecast today with surface high pressure building across the
Great Lakes with developing low pressure across the Central and
Northern Plains. Gales are likely from Silver Bay to Two Harbors,
through Duluth and Superior to Port Wing and Gale Warnings are in
effect until 700 pm this evening. Additional Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed thereafter. Wind gusts to 35 kts
and waves building 5-7 feet are forecast.

Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the
remainder of the North Shore and much of the South Shore with
building waves and strong northeast winds today.

Winds are forecast to decrease on Sunday to around 5 kts,
locally higher to near 10 kts around the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions today across portions of
northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead, locations near the
International Border, and the Hinckley and Pine City areas west
through Lake Mille Lacs and the Brainerd Lakes. For these areas,
relative humidity will fall to near 25 percent this afternoon
with southeast winds sustained around 10-12 mph and
temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elsewhere across northeast
Minnesota and also across the South Shore of Wisconsin, a lake
breeze from Lake Superior will push inland to prevent relative
humidity from falling as far.

For the Siren through Hayward and Phillips areas in northwest
Wisconsin today, relative humidity will fall to around 28-31
percent with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s and southeast
winds sustained around 7-10 mph, locally higher to around 12
mph for the St. Croix Valley. Warm and dry conditions are
favored across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin into
next week. The next best chance of rain showers and
thunderstorms is Wednesday into Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ140>142-146.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-
     148-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...PA
FIRE WEATHER...PA