109
FXUS63 KDLH 220543
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1143 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and mixed precipitation is likely along the
  International Border and Arrowhead late tonight and Saturday
  morning. Snow and mixed accumulation up to one inch is
  possible.

- Warm and mainly quiet weather Sunday and early Monday.

- A messy early winter system is in the forecast late Monday
  through Thursday next week. Rain, snow, and wind are all
  possible. Amounts are still uncertain at this time.

- A pattern change with winter temperatures is expected midweek
  and into the near future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

It`s sunny. There are some clouds around the Brainerd Lakes
though. Those are expected to persist into the evening.

A clipper system is expected to skirt across the Canadian border
tonight. There`s pretty good model agreement at this point that
some light snow and probably some mixed precipitation will
affect the International Border and Arrowhead. QPF amounts to
around a tenth of an inch. SLRs may be high enough to squeeze
out up to an inch of snow for the elevated terrain of the
Arrowhead Saturday morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s. There could be a bit of freezing drizzle/rain as well,
which could affect the Saturday morning commute, though with
amounts are expected to be minimal. Still, there could be some
patchy glazes of ice out there in the morning to watch out for.

Temperatures should warm up quickly during the afternoon with
drier air moving in. It`s looking like a quiet and warm Sunday
with some broad ridging and warm air advection aloft developing.

On Monday, attention turns to a potent low pressure system
that`s expected to bring rain to the central Midwest and move
northward into the afternoon. We might see the first of several
rounds of rain moving in as early as Monday afternoon. Another
low over ~Montana is expected to move east and entangle itself
with the aforementioned low. This will create a bit of messiness
in terms of both storms` precipitation shields as they
essentially combine through midweek. Associated with the first
low pressure system, which will affect us Tuesday, it`s looking
like there will be a potent TROWAL that will keep precipitation
type as mainly rain, or if it does mix or change to snow up near
the border during the afternoon, temperatures will still be
above freezing initially. PWATs around 0.8" at the high end
suggest that rainfall and/or mixed precipitation rates are not
expected to be extraordinarily heavy. Just some persistent
light to moderate rain with some brief heavy rain possible.
Through the whole event (lasting as late as Thursday), a few
areas could top out at 1" of rain and/or melted mixed precip
(10% chance), but most are likely to be up to half an inch (~60%
chance).

As we go into Tuesday night, it`s likely that there will be a
dry slot that moves in from the south. So, as temperatures do
start to cool below freezing, many places where it will be cold
enough for snow may not see much of anything. The International
Border currently has the best chance of precipitation lingering
and switching to some wet snow Tuesday night. Into Wednesday,
PWATs tumble below 0.5" as the second low (which at this time
should have effectively absorbed the first) passes through the
region. We should have lingering light snow that will probably
be a bit spotty in coverage and stick around potentially into
Thursday as the low slowly departs. We will start getting into
the cold air advection and north/northwest wind regime on the
back side of the low Wednesday night into Thursday, so we will
look at much cooler temperatures and some lake enhanced/effect
snow developing along the South Shore and possible off of some
of the larger Minnesota inland lakes as well as temperatures
aloft at 850-hPa fall as low as -10 to -15C (still plenty of
uncertainty on exactly how cold it will get).

In terms of snow from these systems, here are the approximate
probabilities for amounts and locations:

>= 1": 25-70%, highest in northern Minnesota and Iron Co, WI.
>= 3": 10-45% in northeast Minnesota (highest along the
International Border), 10-60% in northwest Wisconsin (highest
in Iron Co, WI.)
>= 6": up to 15% along the International Border and 10-40% in
Iron Co, WI.

Gusty winds are expected at times as these systems pass through,
especially on Tuesday with the rain and then again Wednesday
night into Thursday as winds become northwesterly. Gusts to
around 30 mph are expected, and there`s a ~25% chance that gusts
could exceed 35 mph at times.

Lake-effect snow along the South Shore could linger into Friday
at the latest, then we should settle into true winter
temperatures for the foreseeable future. We may remain in an
active weather pattern as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions persist at all terminals through around 10Z. Some
scattered, light snow moves in from the northwest starting
around that time for locations near the Canadian Border and into
the Arrowhead. As a result, INL may see a few hours of light
snow/rain and perhaps a little freezing rain during the 10-16Z
window today. A light dusting or very thin glaze may be possible
before precipitation ends. The signal for visibility reductions
with the showers are low, so have held off on inclusion for INL.
MVFR ceilings are also expected at INL mid morning through most
of the afternoon before returning to VFR. Other terminals will
remain VFR, though some scattered cloud bases around 2500 ft will
be possible at HIB/DLH/HYR. Winds increase and shift to westerly
as the day progresses, with daytime gusts of 15-20 kt before
weakening again Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Winds become light and variable overnight, then southerly into
Saturday. Some gusts up to 20 to 25 kt are possible Saturday
afternoon along the South Shore and Apostle Islands, spreading
to the North Shore during the night as winds become westerly.
Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Some light rain or mixed
precipitation is possible for the North Shore Saturday morning.
Winds lessen but remain westerly into Sunday. Attention turns to
an active weather system that will move through Monday through
Thursday next week. Windy conditions are likely Tuesday through
Thursday. Gales may be possible at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for
     LSZ140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...JDS