283
FXUS63 KDLH 040638
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1238 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and drizzle continues through this evening, lingering
  into Thursday for portions of NW WI. Additional rainfall
  amounts of another 0.5-1.75" are possible, with the highest
  rates daytime Wednesday.

- Depending on temperatures, some very light lake-effect snow
  could make an appearance along parts of the South Shore
  Thursday evening and Thursday night.

- Cooler weather expected for Friday into the weekend, with low-
  end (10-20%) chances for some light precipitation Saturday
  evening into Sunday along and behind a mostly dry cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT:

Banded light to moderate rain is occurring across central
Minnesota into northeast Minnesota as of 1230 AM CST where a
TROWAL and stronger synoptic forcing for lift are present, with
scattered rain showers intermixed with areas of drizzle for
east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. As we continue
through the overnight hours into daytime Wednesday, expect this
general footprint of rainfall to not change too significantly as
a vertically stacked low pressure system stalls over east-
central Minnesota/west-central Wisconsin. High-resolution model
guidance (REFS) does indicate some reinvigoration to more
moderate rainfall rates daytime Wednesday in the region of
strongest synoptic support in the TROWAL for central Minnesota
to northeast Minnesota, as well as some orographic enhancement
to rainfall along the North Shore.

The low then translates into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday
and exits slowly to the east Wednesday night through Thursday as
the upper-level cut-off low opens up and merges with a trough
diving down from Hudson Bay. This will gradually end the
rainfall from west to east across northeast Minnesota Wednesday
night, though lingering moisture should keep light rain
persisting in northwest Wisconsin into Thursday, particularly
portions of the South Shore Thursday into Thursday night as
cooler 850 mb temperatures slide over a relatively warmer Lake
Superior to produce light lake-effect precipitation before a
drier airmass wins out into Friday and cuts off precipitation.
Depending on how much surface temperatures can cool Thursday
evening and night in conjunction with lingering lake-effect
precipitation, some light snow could mix in for parts of the
South Shore, namely the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron
Counties where minor snowfall accumulations of a couple tenths
of an inch could occur on elevated surfaces.

As for additional rainfall amounts with this system, the
forecast ranges from 0.5-1.75", with the lowest amounts in
east-central Minnesota to inland northwest Wisconsin, and
highest amounts in the Arrowhead, far northern Minnesota, and
portions of the South Shore. The bulk of this additional precipitation
occurs daytime Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

One other thing to watch for will be strong northerly winds with
gusts up to 40 mph possible along portions of the higher terrain
in Cook and Lake counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

FRIDAY - THIS WEEKEND:

No significant changes from the previous forecast for this
timeframe. Cooler and mainly drier air settles in for late this
week into weekend, with highs largely in the 40s and lows below
freezing, even dipping into the teens in some locations
Thursday night and Friday night. A slight warm up will then
arrive to the area late this weekend into early next week. An
upper level shortwave grazing northern portions of the area
combined with a mostly dry cold front move through from Saturday
evening into Sunday, bringing spotty and very low (10-20%)
precipitation chances to parts of the Arrowhead, Borderlands,
and northwest Wisconsin. This would mainly be in the form of
sprinkles or isolated to widely scattered rain showers if any
precipitation is realized.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread rain continues across a large portion of the area this
evening as low pressure continues to lift north. This low pressure
is expected to stall over the Northland on Wednesday before
propagating downstream on Thursday, which will keep rain in the
forecast through the period. Conditions will largely be IFR to LIFR
as low stratus persists and visibility occasionally becomes reduced
due to rain and patchy fog. Winds will generally be from the north
through the period, being a bit more variable in northwest WI today
around the low pressure center.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

An active period with a couple rounds of strong winds continues
for today and Thursday. Northeast winds increase during the
current overnight hours and linger through this morning with
gusts of 25-30 kts and waves of 2-6 ft, leading to hazardous
conditions for smaller vessels from Grand Portage to the Twin
Ports to the Apostle Islands. Those winds will subside later
today and turn northerly, with gusts below 20 kts for most
nearshore waters this afternoon, with the exception of Grand
Marias to Grand Portage. Then, this evening into Thursday expect
another round of strong northerly winds. Gusts of 25-40 kts
will be in store, lowest near the Twin Ports and highest in
Grand Marais to Grand Portage where a Gale Warning has been
issued for early Thursday morning through afternoon. Given the
break in stronger winds for the remaining nearshore waters this
afternoon and evening, we will let the first round of Small
Craft Advisories expire before issuing a subsequent round of
Small Craft Advisories for the strong northerly winds later
Wednesday evening into Thursday. Winds gradually weaken out of
the northeast Thursday evening and night and become light and
variable on Friday. Periods of rain and areas of fog persist
from now into daytime Thursday, gradually ending from west to
east on Thursday as drier air filters into the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns through Thursday. Scattered rain
and drizzle persists through much of today, gradually ending
from west to east in northeast Minnesota this evening and
tonight as drier air works into the area from the west. However,
rain should linger in portions of northwest Wisconsin into
Thursday, hanging around longest in some light lake-effect
precipitation for portions of the South Shore into Thursday
evening and night. Some light snow could even mix in for the
higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties Thursday evening and
night, though snow amounts look minimal at best for elevated
surfaces (trace to a couple tenths of an inch). Additional
rainfall amounts through Thursday range from 0.5-1.75", highest
in far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and higher terrain
of the North Shore.

Gusty north winds of 18-28 mph are forecast for today in
northeast Minnesota, and generally gusting to 15 mph or less in
northwest Wisconsin. Additional strong northerly winds develop
Wednesday night into Thursday at 20-35 mph, being strongest for
the North Shore. Cooler and rain-free conditions arrive on
Friday, and largely continue into the weekend with min RH each
afternoon ranging between 40-60%. Winds will be light on Friday,
then be southwesterly at 5-10 mph with gusts of 10-18 mph on
Saturday and similar strength on Sunday out of the west.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140.
     Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     LSZ141>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ145>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein/Levens
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein