978
FXUS63 KDLH 171921
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
221 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will spread across the region early Friday and linger
  into Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall (30-50% of 1")
  will be south of a line from Brainerd to Sandstone to Hayward
  to Park Falls.

- Dangerous swimming conditions expected for the beaches of the
  Twin Ports Friday and Saturday then again Sunday and Monday
  afternoons and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Dense cumulus field across the region this afternoon as low level
moisture remains in place from yesterday evenings light rain
activity. Despite the increased cloud cover we are still looking at
highs in the 60s for the majority of the region. Expect this cloud
cover to fade this evening. However, cloud cover will gradually
increase and thicken overnight from the south ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, with overnight lows settling in the
upper 30s to upper 40s.

Rain chances will increase early Friday morning as a low pressure
system tracks out of the Plains towards the Midwest. Moisture will
overspread the region from south to north, but drier air from the
departing high pressure over Canada will create a sharp northern
edge to the precipitation shield. The latest trend in the models
continues to eat away at the rain totals with our southern tier of
counties now less likely to receive an inch of rain. Current
probabilities have dropped to 30-50% chance of at least an inches
from the Brainerd Lakes region east into Price County. Areas farther
north toward the Borderlands may see little to no measurable rain.
Additionally, instability with this passing system remains low so
thunderstorms are not expected. Rain will persist into Saturday
morning before tapering off west to east.

Strong northeasterly winds will develop Friday and remain enhanced
through Saturday. The favorable direction will lead to rip current
and building wave heights for the beaches of the Twin Ports.

High pressure settles over the region for the late weekend period,
bringing a return to dry weather for Sunday. Skies will clear out
as cooler Canadian air overspreads the Northland, setting up ideal
conditions for radiational cooling. Inland locations will see
temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s Sunday and Monday
night, leading to the potential for patchy frost across low-lying
areas.

The dry pattern will persist into early next week with mostly sunny
days and chilly nights. A gradual warming trend will take hold by
Wednesday, with high temperatures returning to seasonable values in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Rain chances may return by late Wednesday
night into Thursday, though confidence remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A dense cumulus field is engulfing the region this afternoon with
widespread MVFR conditions. There will be pockets of scattered
conditions at times but in general expect the cloud cover to persist
until the evening hours. Overnight a system will be moving out of
the Central Plains and is expected to cross southern MN. Cloud cover
will increase across our south with some rain expected tomorrow
morning for BRD/HYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light winds today will strengthen overnight as they turn to out of
the north. Expect gusts to around 20 knots. These winds will
increase through Friday, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for
areas near the head of the Lake. Winds are expected to briefly
weaken on Saturday before strong northeasterlies return on Sunday
leading to more hazardous conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

No fire weather concerns. Min RHs through the forecast period remain
above 35% throughout the next 7 days, with daily temperatures
generally in the 60s to low 70s. Rain will spread in from the south
Friday into Saturday morning, delivering up to 0.75" across our
southern tier counties, with a sharp northern cut-off in totals.
Drier conditions and light winds return for Sunday into early next
week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt