831
FXUS63 KDMX 261125
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
525 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold this morning with wind chills of -15 to -30. A
  Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 am.

- Cold and dry through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Clear skies overnight have allowed temperatures to fall below zero
across Iowa and expect they will continue to drop through sunrise.
Winds remain at around 10-15 mph at most sites thanks to the upper
level shortwave passing across Iowa (viewable in GOES-East water
vapor imagery). Early this morning wind chills across Iowa range
from -15 to -30. These will begin to improve by late morning as
temperatures warm. The Cold Weather Advisory remains unchanged and
runs through 9am. A compact shortwave moving north of the area today
will pull a warm sector (warm used loosely here) across Iowa.
Soundings indicate winds out of the southwest at 25-35 kts
through the mixed layer this afternoon. While a WAA regime is
not overly supportive of bringing those higher end gusts to the
surface, do expect breezy conditions this afternoon and evening
with gusts of 25-30 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Fairly quiet conditions across central Iowa this afternoon, with
satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies for much of the area,
outside of a few areas of broken mid to low level cloud cover into
north/west Iowa that has been gradually dissipating as it tracks
southeast through the day so far. Under some of this cloud cover
mainly over southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota,
periods of light flurries to snow showers have been on and off,
with all forecast guidance keeping any of these flurries/showers
out of Iowa as a look at soundings show dry air in the low
levels really limiting this potential. Cannot completely rule
out a few flurries in far northwest Iowa, but with such isolated
coverage and limited potential, have left the forecast dry. At
the surface, a large area of high pressure is currently centered
over the Dakotas, which will continue its southerly descent
across the Plains into tonight. Surface winds out of the
north/northwest have increased slightly this afternoon, with
occasional gusts mainly east of I-35, with values up to 20 mph.
Temperatures have warmed up despite this northwest flow, which
is thanks to the majority of areas seeing sunlight reach the
surface, as 2pm temperatures range in the single digits north
and in the low teens south. A look further up in the atmosphere,
particularly at the mid-levels, indicates more active
conditions in the form of a potent trough pivoting across the
Upper Midwest, with a lobe of energy expected to pass across
Iowa later this evening, bringing with it the next shot of
bitter cold air that will remain into early Monday morning.
While dry weather is expected to hold, temperatures will plummet
this evening and especially overnight, with morning lows
bottoming out in the -10 to -15 range north and in the -5 to -10
range south. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy as well with
occasional gusts up to 15-20mph, especially north, which will
result in even colder nighttime wind chills in the
-20 to -30 range north and in the -15 to -20 range south. Therefore,
the Cold Weather Advisory across the entire forecast area remains in
effect, starting at midnight tonight until 9am Monday.

For the start of the work week, the larger scale pattern will
feature broad mid-level ridging across the western CONUS, which will
put Iowa in northwesterly flow, along with generally drier air
overhead. Near the surface, this will result in warming temperatures
thanks to surface flow out of the southwest into Iowa, with breezy
winds gusting up to 20-30 mph by late morning through the afternoon,
highest in the northwest. Temperatures will remain below freezing
but will be noticeably warmer than previous days, with forecast
highs in the low to mid teens east/northeast and in the upper teens
to low 20s west Monday. There remains the indication per guidance of
an area of low pressure riding the larger scale ridge into the Great
Lakes late Monday into Tuesday morning, which looks to bring
precipitation chances into those areas, but remaining well north and
east of Iowa. Though remaining dry into Iowa, this clipper will
extend some cold air into north/east Iowa Tuesday, leading to colder
highs in upper single digits to mid teens, while the rest of the
state remains more mild in the upper teens to low 20s, with breezy
conditions. High pressure settles overhead briefly Tuesday
evening, departing into Wednesday.

Little change in the overall pattern through the mid-late week
period, as the western thermal ridge continues to build, resulting
in the continued period of ``milder`` temperatures across the
southwest half of the state in the teens to 20s. Further north/east,
the gyre of mid-level low pressure circulating over southern Canada
into the Great Lakes will keep a colder airmass extending into
northeast Iowa, resulting in generally colder conditions there
through the rest of the work week as highs generally remain in the
single digits to low teens. With dry air generally over much of Iowa
as a few waves of surface high pressure glide through, guidance
indicates very little chance for precipitation. Worth mentioning
though is a weak signal for some moisture return paired with a
passing shortwave down across the Dakotas, indicating very low
chances (<15%) for snow into far western Iowa later Thursday/Friday
per GFS/Euro, though low confidence given this is several days out.
Something to keep an eye on through the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Wind will shift
to out of the southwest today and become breezy, gusting to
around 25 kts this afternoon and overnight. By 06z winds will
shift back to out of the northwest, remaining breezy through
the end of the period. Despite the shifting of breezy winds
throughout this TAF period, it is not anticipated for sites to
reach LLWS thresholds.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hagenhoff
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Hagenhoff