437
FXUS63 KDMX 121136
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
536 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of light rain and/or snow remains possible this
  morning. Isolated slick spots could develop, but should melt
  shortly after daybreak.

- Dry conditions for most with unseasonably warm temperatures
  with highs in the 50s through the weekend.

- Low chance (20 to 30%) of rain over southern Iowa on Saturday,
  but best chances remain south of the Iowa/Missouri border.

- Spring-like conditions continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light returns are scattered across Iowa on radar imagery this
morning as modest warm air/theta-e advection produces hydrometeors
within the saturated mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.
However, these returns are not as they see. Also evident on
radar imagery this morning is a big 30 mile donut hole
surrounding the KDMX radar site where no precipitation is being
detected. This hole is not an anomaly or bad luck for the
residents of central Iowa, rather it is an indication of the
extremely dry layer that resides beneath the hydrometeors being
produced aloft. This dry layer is soaking up all of the
precipitation before it can reach the surface, and has been
doing so all night. No sites have reported precipitation in
Iowa yet this morning, even underneath the radar returns that
are appearing farther out from the radar. Also indicative of
these dry low- levels are the 10 to 20 degree
temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface being reported
across the state.

Fortunately for the forecast, all is not lost quite yet. The low
levels are quite dry, and may still end up being too dry for
precipitation to occur, but as hydrometeors fall into the layer
and temperatures continue to cool tonight, these temp/dewpoint
spreads will diminish. Likewise, radar imagery in southwest Iowa
indicates some heavier bands of precipitation beginning to
develop, which will have a better chance of saturating through
the dry low-levels and reaching the surface. This signal should
also become more common as the synoptic wave and it`s
associated frontogenetical forcing continues eastward into the
area. More lift will equate to more hydrometeors and eventually
more saturation, which increases the likelihood of
precipitation to reaching the ground. Guidance is keying in on this,
and actually looks a bit more promising for precipitation than
it did yesterday morning, with most of the model QPF output
showing at least a weak band of QPF drifting over the area
through the morning. Cross sections support these more banded
features as well, showing punches of better saturation down to
the surface with the stronger pockets of lift. Therefore, have
continued to increase the values and coverage of NBM pops,
albeit still only around the 15 to 20% range given uncertainty
in the location of the bands. Will increase these values should
precipitation look more imminent in a given area.

The precipitation type forecast remains relatively unchanged,
keeping a rain/snow mix in the grids through day-break. With so much
dry air in the soundings and wetbulb temperatures teetering around
to just above 0C, snow still can`t be completely ruled out. However,
it does appear to be leaning more towards melting into rain given
the warmer layer present just above the surface in recent
soundings. Of some concern are temperatures right at the
surface. Most surface observations in western and central Iowa
are in the mid-30s with dewpoints in the teens to low twenties,
meaning wetbulb temperatures are at or below freezing. This
suggests some re- freeze could occur if surfaces cool as well.
Fortunately, road temperatures are trailing the air
temperatures by quite a few degrees, and remain in the mid 30s
to near 40 as of 230 AM. If we do see liquid precipitation down
to the surface and road temperatures are able to cool to near
freezing, slick spots could develop for this morning`s commute.
Therefore, will be keeping a close eye on trends through
sunrise. After sunrise, temperatures will begin to warm back
above freezing, melting any slick spots. Likewise, rain will
become the most-likely precipitation type through mid- morning
hours, before rain chances diminish around noon.

After this morning`s precipitation, conditions remain dry through
the rest of today and Friday. Skies will begin to clear out over
Iowa this afternoon and remain mostly clear through Friday. High
temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the low to mid 50s both
days. Winds remain light as well. Cloud cover will then begin to
increase again on Saturday as a southern stream trough evolves into
a closed low just to the south of the state. Both deterministic and
ensemble output keeps this system all but outside of our forecast
area thanks to a dry northern stream shortwave simultaneously
moving through southern Canada and into the Great Lakes region.
Depending on which model you look at, some precipitation may
creep up onto the Iowa side of the Iowa/Missouri border during
the day Saturday, but this appears to be an outlier solution.
Even if precipitation falls in southern Iowa, temperatures will
be warm enough to cause it to fall as rain, limiting any impacts
beyond being a minor inconvenience for being outdoors or
wanting to go wash your car.

Outside of this system, the forecast looks warm and dry through the
end of the weekend. Cloudy conditions on Saturday give way to
sunshine on Sunday, with highs in the 50s both days. The spring-like
weather then continues into early next week, as highs may make
another run for the 60s Monday and Tuesday. Next weeks weather also
looks like it could turn a bit more active, with a fairly
agitated pattern and multiple waves of energy moving through
starting mid- week. There of course isn`t a ton of agreement out
that far and specific details are purely speculative. However,
if the state ends up on the warmer side of one of these systems,
it`s not out of the realm of possibility that we could be
looking at a slightly different type of spring-like weather. Of
course, making any bold predictions at this time-range is a
fools errand, so will wait for details to become clearer through
the weekend and into early next week!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low to mid-level clouds continue to stream over the area this
morning but generally remain 5kft or above. Therefore, VFR
conditions prevail at all sites this morning and are expected
to continue through the TAF period. There remains a low chance
for a few flurries/sprinkles through the morning, primarily at
KDSM and KOTM, but chances are too low to include in TAFs. That
said, slightly lowered ceilings around 3k to 4k ft may develop
with some of this light precipitation, even if it isn`t fully
reaching the ground. Skies clear out overnight and winds remain
light and generally out of the south to southeast. A signal for
patchy fog is starting to develop for early Friday morning
toward the end of the TAF period, but not enough confidence to
include in forecast at this lead time.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson