582
FXUS63 KDMX 150421
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1021 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures met at several locations this afternoon.

- Cooling trend begins Saturday though more noticeable by Sunday.


- Rain and possibly some snow in the forecast early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Another warm and beautiful afternoon occurring across Iowa. Current
temperature observations are reporting low 70s and some records
across the state. Today may also be the last above 70 degree day of
the year so get out and enjoy it while it is here if you can!
Similar to yesterday, these temperature observations are
notably above the raw NBM output. Because of this, the NBM90th
percentile was used to increase afternoon highs a couple degrees
warmer. This warmth is occurring due to warm dry air aloft
being mixed down to near ~900mb. This dry air helped limit how
much our surface dew points increased. As mentioned in the
the earlier discussion, the previous record high temperatures
for November 14th are Des Moines(73), Waterloo(72), Mason
City(71) and Ottumwa(75).

The thermal ridge is expected to linger through early Saturday
morning thus leaving warm lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Cloud cover will increase tonight as a closed low moving across
central Canada will help force a mid-level wave into the northern
plains. This feature will then compress the thermal ridge well into
the southern CONUS during the daytime hours on Saturday. As the wave
approaches surface winds will veer to the northwest and increase to
near 15mph with gusts near 25mph. Forecasted highs will not be as
warm as today mainly in the upper 50s and 60s and then will begin to
fall as cold air advection begins Saturday evening.

By Sunday into Monday, high pressure returns with cooler and drier
air. RH values on Sunday sink into the upper 20 percents although
wind gusts remains below 10kts which should suppress any fire
weather concerns. Forecast highs for both days will be in the upper
40s to mid-50s. The forecast remains fairly unchanged in terms of
timing for the system that comes through the central plains late
Monday into Tuesday. Latest ensemble guidance (mainly the GEFS)
favors some snow to mix in as a potential p-type mainly across
northern Iowa. However, the focus for snow has trended farther
northward closer to the MN/IA border. There is still time left
before snow can be ruled out of the forecast given the chance that
our temperatures are cooled down enough towards wet bulb values and
increase snow growth potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A frontal passage through the morning will keep winds on the
breezy side, with LLWS over the next few hours, followed by a
wind shift becoming northwesterly through the day, with gusts up
to 20-25 knots. Otherwise, high clouds are expected to pass
overhead, with VFR conditions expected to remain across the
terminals through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Bury