649
FXUS63 KDMX 011945
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
145 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday evening. Severe
  risk extends into the after dark hours. Damaging winds and a
  tornado or two are possible.

- Rain and storms remain possible Tuesday. Rain chances extend
  into Thursday for at least northern Iowa.

- Highs cool midweek with highs in the 40s possible for northern
  Iowa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Some peaks of sun brought temporary relief from the rain today.
Highs will top out in the mid 60s. Clouds are starting to fill in
from the south and will cover the area starting tonight. The western
CONUS trough will eject into the Central Plains Monday, ushering in
moisture advection ahead of it. That advection wing arrives after
midnight tonight, bringing a few tenths of an inch of rain to
northern and northwest Iowa. The low pressure will move across
southeast SD. Showers and storms will be common in the warm sector
through the day and the main severe threat will come late in the
evening in the form of a low-topped QLCS along the cold front. As
has been the case leading up to the event, shear favors organized
storms and tornadoes, but the thermodynamics limit the extent
and intensity of both threats. Due to a saturated PBL with dew
points in the 60s, it may take time for the surface to decouple,
extending the wind and tornado threat into the overnight hours.
This is why the Marginal Risk was extended into more of
southern Iowa. Speaking of moisture, the other factor will be
the efficient rainfall. The cold front will slow down overnight
due to the trough wrapping up and stalling, meaning widespread
rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" are likely over southeast
Iowa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The stalled upper low will sink towards Iowa on Tuesday and its dry
slot will rode the midlevel clouds and allow for some of the stratus
to mix out. The cold front will exit the area in the early morning
and add to the mixing potential with CAA. Post-frontal storms will
be possible as low-level lapse rates steepen and will contribute to
the gusty winds that afternoon. Storms could trend stronger if the
dry slot comes more north into the state, allowing for lapse rates
in the midlevels to steepen out once more. Wednesday and
Thursday have trended colder. This is because the upper low will
park right over Iowa Wednesday and all but guarantee stratus
and rain until the TROWAL departs late Thursday. Highs may very
well trend down and into the 40s. Highs will recover back into
the 50s and 60s once the flow resumes a southerly component.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Stratus is lifting north into the area this afternoon with some
MVFR nearby KDSM, KALO and later KMCW. Cigs will continue to
lower for all sites after 00z, becoming IFR/LIFR by 12z. Have
added timing for rain, as well as the window for when vsby
restrictions are most likely with rain. KOTM will see rain
arrive right at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jimenez
LONG TERM...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez