897
FXUS63 KDMX 090451
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1051 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers linger this afternoon and evening,
  though little additional accumulation is expected.

- Cold and blustery on Sunday with highs in the low 30s and
  northwest winds gusting 25-30+ mph.

- Warmer Tuesday through the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Rain and snow continues to move across the area this afternoon.
Precipitation types have generally evolved as expected so far with
snow across the north, transitioning to a mix across central
Iowa, and rain in the south. Snow amounts have been highest in
northwest Iowa where the winter weather advisory was in effect
in the area where the deformation zone pivoted across. Areas in
our west central to northwest counties, and into the Sioux
Falls CWA Iowa counties have seen 2-4 inches within the advisory
area with under 2 inches across northern Iowa east of the
advisory. Higher snow rates this morning were able to overcome
initial warm ground temperatures with partially snow covered
roads in the northwest. As rates have slowed into the afternoon
and the DOT has been able to treat roads, conditions have
quickly improved. In most cases roads are generally wet with
accumulations in grassy areas. Even so, slick spots are
possible in areas where snow is falling.

As the low continues to skirt across our south and continues
lifting east snow will begin to taper off across the area later
this afternoon. Dry air is already beginning to filter in across
western Iowa, and if we zoom out for a wider view of the
midwest we see the secondary boundary with much colder air
sitting north of the area and rotating around to push south into
the area. As this surge of cold air advection reaches the area
winds will increase with enhanced pressure gradient and
subsidence behind the surface low. Model soundings note
lingering shallow moisture across the area within the dendritic
growth zone this evening, and overnight into Sunday morning.
This moisture, combined with weak instability noted by
steepening lapse rates in the lowest levels and increasing winds
hint at the potential for lingering light snow of a more
shower-y variety. These would not be widespread and would
produce little in the way of additional accumulation, but could
result in brief visibility restrictions.

Temperatures will continue to fall overnight into the teens to low
20s and remain cold on Sunday with highs in the low 30s. As
temperatures fall after dark roads should quickly cool as well and
may ice up, especially elevated and untreated surfaces. Be ready for
slick spots this evening and on Sunday morning. Northwest winds
remain breezy through the day on Sunday with continued cold air
advection across the state. Model soundings indicate 25-30+ mph
gusts possible, resulting in wind chills in the teens to around
20 degrees through the day on Sunday.

Cold air sticks around through Monday, but this will be the end as
winds lighten and the upper level trough shifts east. By
Tuesday ridging returns with warm air advection sending
temperatures back to the mid 50s. The 50s stick around through
the upcoming week with 60s possible by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Precip shield has pushed east out of central Iowa this evening,
leaving generally VFR CIGS across northern Iowa with MVFR
central and south. Upstream obervations show fairly widespread
area of 2500-3500 ft ceilings across the Dakotas with more
breaks noted across Minnesota. For now, have kept the TAFs more
optimistic favoring the solution that the area of more breaks
across MN is more likely the source region to impact the state.
That said, will need to keep a keen eye on how this evolves
overnight and adjust accordingly. Lastly - some 00z output
continues to suggest pockets of snow showers mainly across
southern Iowa, with highest likelihood to impact KOTM. As such
have added a Prob30 group 13-18z Sunday there. Otherwise, breezy
winds from the northwest set up for Sunday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hahn