186
FXUS63 KDMX 211122
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler Tuesday through the end of the week with highs in
  the upper 70s to low 80s.

- Upper level smoke filters back into the area this morning
  behind the cold front and may result in hazy skies.

- Precipitation chances return late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The cold front that brought thunderstorms to the state Monday
afternoon and evening has pushed south of the state overnight. While
a few scattered post-frontal showers linger in southern Iowa early
this morning, the more robust convection has pushed into Missouri.
Behind the front cooler air is filtering south into the area. A few
areas of patchy fog are possible into the morning, but breezy
conditions will likely inhibit more widespread fog development this
morning. With strong cold air advection into the area temperatures
today will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, some 15+ degrees cooler
than yesterday and welcome relief from the recent heat. The pressure
gradient remains tight behind the departing trough and the cold air
advection and subsidence will come together for breezy north winds
today with gusts of 20-25+ mph expected. The north winds will also
bring another plume of smoke back across the area with hazy skies
anticipated through the day today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

More mild conditions are expected through the end of the work week
with highs in the upper 70s and 80s across the state. Continued
ridging out to our south and west will continue, but there is decent
signal for more shortwaves Wednesday into Thursday that could bring
in additional chances for showers and storms. Severe weather is less
likely with these storm chances, as moisture will be limited, but
more details will be sorted out in the coming days. The ridge is
again expected to intensify over the central plains during the
weekend and heat will likely return by Saturday and Sunday.
Continued NW flow could bring in a marginal chances for smoke
haze since wildfires are still ongoing in Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northwest
winds will gust 20-25 kts through today, tapering off after
00z. Wildfire smoke is expected to move across the area, but
should remain aloft and visibility reductions are not
anticipated.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff
LONG TERM...De Bruin
AVIATION...Hagenhoff