491
FXUS63 KDMX 310408
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1108 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increasing this evening, lasting through at least
  the morning hours Saturday. Sprinkles/very light rain will
  hang on for Halloween night.

- Next chance of rain returns Monday with thunderstorms possible
  Monday afternoon/evening. Rain will linger through Wednesday.

- Highs in the 60s common though rain and clouds could drop
  highs into the 50s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry air has kept rain chances mostly in the south today with
sunshine appearing from the eroding stratus in between the two
bands of moisture. The southern band will move north and across
the state tonight. This is in response to a weak synoptic
shortwave that will move right over the state this weekend. A
few thunderstorms will be possible along the leading edge of the
rain this evening, but lightning will be sparse. (25% chance of
lightning) Most of the rain tonight will fall in northern Iowa
and will total between a quarter and half inch. Clouds will
remain over the state for Halloween and some sprinkles/light
showers will hang on in the central and southern parts of the
state. Trick-or-Treating won`t be a wash, but it will feature
some of this light rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Height rises on the exiting half of the shortwave will suppress
rain chances Sunday and the main moisture axis will be pulled
towards the lee side troughing. Southeast and eastern Iowa may
see some very light rain early. Highs will start to recover into
the upper 60s and near 70, but a prolonged period of rain and
some storms will arrive to start next week. The southern stream
wave will eject into the plains, enhancing the low and midlevel
jet in the warm sector. At this range, deterministic runs bring
MUCAPE values around the 300 J/kg range into southern Iowa. As
mentioned yesterday, the potential for surface-based severe
weather is heavily challenged by morning rain and lingering
cloud cover. Moderate wrap-around rain stays in the state for
Tuesday and partially into Wednesday. NBM QMD guidance shows
that much of the state has around a 50% chance of exceeding 2"
of rain, which matches the early convective nature as well as
the very high PWATs (1.5") by November standards. The
progressive nature of convection and the long-duration of rain
will reduce potential hydrologic impacts. Highs will cool into the
50s following the system`s departure and the upstream pattern
will remain active and amplified.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are in place across the area as showers
and isolated thunderstorms are moving across central Iowa.
KFOD, KDSM and KOTM are behind the initial round of showers with
KMCW and KALO seeing an increase in shower chances in a couple
of hours. A lull in activity is forecast before another round of
showers arrive toward 12Z and continuing through 18Z. Post-
precipitation low CIGS and VSBY will be possible through 20z
before gradually improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. Lastly,
winds will be decreasing overnight to light and variable and
will stay light and variable for the remainder of the TAF
window.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jimenez
LONG TERM...Jimenez
AVIATION...Vorst