546
FXUS63 KDMX 031129
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
529 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish after 5 pm.

- Mild conditions much of this week.

- Much colder late week into next weekend?

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Return flow has setup across Iowa with high pressure to the
southeast and low pressure to the northwest. Gusty south to
southwest wind has developed in response to the return flow. Mixed
layer winds are in the mid to upper 30 kts over parts of north
central and northwest Iowa. While the warm advection environment
diminishes momentum transport of these winds, a good pressure
gradient greater than 30 ubars/km is helping push sustained winds to
near 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph to that part of the state. Not
planning any wind headlines given how marginal this is but a Special
Weather Statement is possible this afternoon.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon has a strong PV anomaly cluster
over far southern Canada and descending southeast into the Northern
Plains. This system will pass mainly to the northeast of the region
but a region of QG forcing and kinematic energy will pass through
parts of Iowa. Expect an increase in mid-level cloudiness overnight
in response to the system buy precipitation chances are very low
with dry air below the cloud bases that will be AOA 10 kft. High
pressure will move into the area on Monday and should bring mostly
sunny skies to central Iowa. Breezy conditions will develop with
diurnal mixing to near 850 mb. A transition to upper level zonal
flow will occur late Monday and persist into early Wednesday with a
short wave passing through that flow on Tuesday. Little impacts are
expected with that short wave and overall dry and mild weather
during this time period. A stronger upper level system will arrive
Thursday night. At this point, it appears the best moisture
transport is east of the area with substantial dry air in the lowest
10 kft. Will continue to monitor that trends as a slight westward
shift in the Gulf moisture transport would increase precipitation
chances and for now will keep the precipitation chances confined to
east of Interstate 35. While there remains a lot of variability on
the evolution of upper level high pressure near Hudson Bay, the
overall mean upper level pattern is a developing ridge over the
western CONUS and the Hudson Bay low. This setup will lead to steep
northerly flow originating from northern Canada and point straight
into the Upper Midwest. Yes that likely means a strong push of cold
air which likely will be the coldest of this fall season so far. We
won`t even mention this may includes light snow next weekend or
actually I guess we will.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

West northwest winds will pick up through the morning. Winds
will be sustained around 10 to 12 kts with gusts around 15 to 20
kts. A few gusts in northern and northeastern Iowa may exceed
20 kts at times. Winds diminish into the evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Dodson