050
FXUS63 KDMX 032333
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
533 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very low chance (<10%) for freezing drizzle/rain far northeast
  Iowa Sunday afternoon, otherwise breezy and dry for most

- Warmer and mostly dry for early week, with another low
  probability window (<10%) for wintery mix far northern Iowa
  Tuesday

- A more dynamic system late work week to watch, with rain/snow
  and temperatures gradually plummeting behind it

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026


The weak wave that brought light wintry precipitation to the Midwest
region slowly continues to depart today, which clipped northeast
Iowa this morning and brought some isolated light freezing drizzle
to light snow, particularly over Mason City and Forest City to
Clear Lake. This had led to some isolated slick areas on
roadways in these areas, but has since then improved. Otherwise
dry conditions cover the entire state into this afternoon,
though remaining cloudy especially as lower clouds slowly spread
across the area. The clouds, along with low level northwest
flow has led to a rather slow increase in temperatures, with
values in the 20s north of I-80 and in the 30s south. Mid-level
ridging over the northwest CONUS today will allow for the
remainder of the day to be relatively benign in terms of
weather, as surface high pressure passes through this evening
and departs southeast by Sunday. Overnight lows in the upper
teens through the 20s are expected tonight into Sunday, warmest
across southwest Iowa. Cannot rule out the potential for patchy
fog over portions of western Iowa into Sunday morning given the
gradual push of warm and moist air overhead, along with light
winds, though this would dissipate after sunrise.

Through Sunday morning, a mid-level shortwave passing across the
Dakotas and into Minnesota will bring an increase in moisture and
forcing into the region, arriving into the afternoon to early
evening. The higher moisture content and more favorable forcing
looks to remain into Minnesota and Wisconsin, though weak lift into
the far northeast portion of Iowa, along with some moisture is
suggested, with CAMS indicating a window where light
precipitation may fall in the far northeast Sunday afternoon to
early evening. However, QPF output from various models indicate
no precipitation accumulation outside of a few that output a
trace at most. A further look at the low levels near the surface
per soundings indicate that some moisture presence in the low
levels and some directional shear (turbulence) is indicated per
RAP Sunday afternoon, concentrated below a dry but prominent
warm nose as warm air advection lifts into the region and
surface temperatures hover just below freezing, though other
members such as the NAM and GFS are a bit drier near the
surface. Overall, there is a non-zero chance for at least
freezing drizzle into northeast Iowa Sunday afternoon, though
probabilities remain below 10% so have not included specifically
in the forecast at this time and will continue to monitor
trends over the next several hours, as any southerly shift in
the system could increase these chances notably. Shifting low-
level flow becoming southwesterly, along with a tightened
pressure gradient with this system`s passage will also result in
increased winds across Iowa Sunday morning through the
afternoon, with gusts up to 20-30 mph expected.

The start of the upcoming work week is expected generally to be on
the dry side, with weak mid-level ridging moving in briefly Monday.
This will be followed by a shortwave trough moving into the Central
Plains into Tuesday, with another flip in 850mb winds back
southerly, keeping high temperatures on the mild side through the
40s and even low 50s. Surface low pressure in relation to the
shortwave looks to pass through Iowa, though the majority of
favorable forcing for lift and moisture return stays north and east
of the state. While the GFS keeps Iowa on the dry side, the Euro and
NAM do indicate some moisture and weaker forcing into north/east
Iowa, with temperatures near to just below freezing Tuesday morning
that would suggest additional but low wintery precipitation chances.
Considering the considerable uncertainty on the extent of moisture
into Iowa at this time, have decided to keep the area dry in this
forecast cycle and will continue to closely watch this system into
early next week.

A change to mainly zonal flow into the Central Plains, along with a
lack of moisture overhead into midweek will keep conditions dry and
relatively quiet, with temperatures remaining more mild in the 40s
to even possibly low 50s, though these forecast values may be
tweaked a bit lower in the coming days if cloud cover looks more
likely as was discussed in the previous forecast. Beyond midweek,
long range guidance indicates a more notable change towards the end
of the work week as a longwave trough deepens and lifts northeast
into the Central Plains, with access to gulf moisture tracking
northward just ahead of this feature late Thursday into Friday.
Depicted from this is a rather dynamic low pressure system
developing into the central CONUS, with Iowa in the warm sector into
Friday morning followed by a push of much colder air behind it as it
slowly departs into the weekend. This could mean at least rain to
start, followed by some transition to wintery precipitation and
quickly dropping temperatures. With this being several days out from
this point in time though, more specific details are not well known
but will be something to certainly keep an eye on through the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Confidence is high in MVFR restrictions overnight into Sunday
morning at FOD, MCW, and ALO. There may also be fog developing
after midnight up toward and northwest of FOD with no mention at
this time in the terminal. OTM is on the line of stratus at the
start of the period and could go VFR, but that is uncertain.
Similarly, DSM is VFR to start, but stratus has lifted to the
north with another area of clouds to the west. So while DSM has
VFR conditions through the period, confidence is not high in
the forecast and will be monitoring trends for possible AMDs.
Otherwise, there is general agreement that conditions will
improve into VFR toward the end of this period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Ansorge