758
FXUS63 KDMX 260444
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1044 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold tonight through Monday morning with wind chills of -15
  to -30. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight to
  9 am Monday.

- Temperatures a bit warmer through the upcoming work week, but
  still rather chilly with highs in the upper single digits
  through the 20s, warmest southwest.

- Generally dry conditions through the week, with a low signal
  for snow late week (<15%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Fairly quiet conditions across central Iowa this afternoon, with
satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies for much of the area,
outside of a few areas of broken mid to low level cloud cover into
north/west Iowa that has been gradually dissipating as it tracks
southeast through the day so far. Under some of this cloud cover
mainly over southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota,
periods of light flurries to snow showers have been on and off,
with all forecast guidance keeping any of these flurries/showers
out of Iowa as a look at soundings show dry air in the low
levels really limiting this potential. Cannot completely rule
out a few flurries in far northwest Iowa, but with such isolated
coverage and limited potential, have left the forecast dry. At
the surface, a large area of high pressure is currently centered
over the Dakotas, which will continue its southerly descent
across the Plains into tonight. Surface winds out of the
north/northwest have increased slightly this afternoon, with
occasional gusts mainly east of I-35, with values up to 20 mph.
Temperatures have warmed up despite this northwest flow, which
is thanks to the majority of areas seeing sunlight reach the
surface, as 2pm temperatures range in the single digits north
and in the low teens south. A look further up in the atmosphere,
particularly at the mid-levels, indicates more active
conditions in the form of a potent trough pivoting across the
Upper Midwest, with a lobe of energy expected to pass across
Iowa later this evening, bringing with it the next shot of
bitter cold air that will remain into early Monday morning.
While dry weather is expected to hold, temperatures will plummet
this evening and especially overnight, with morning lows
bottoming out in the -10 to -15 range north and in the -5 to -10
range south. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy as well with
occasional gusts up to 15-20mph, especially north, which will
result in even colder nighttime wind chills in the
-20 to -30 range north and in the -15 to -20 range south. Therefore,
the Cold Weather Advisory across the entire forecast area remains in
effect, starting at midnight tonight until 9am Monday.

For the start of the work week, the larger scale pattern will
feature broad mid-level ridging across the western CONUS, which will
put Iowa in northwesterly flow, along with generally drier air
overhead. Near the surface, this will result in warming temperatures
thanks to surface flow out of the southwest into Iowa, with breezy
winds gusting up to 20-30 mph by late morning through the afternoon,
highest in the northwest. Temperatures will remain below freezing
but will be noticeably warmer than previous days, with forecast
highs in the low to mid teens east/northeast and in the upper teens
to low 20s west Monday. There remains the indication per guidance of
an area of low pressure riding the larger scale ridge into the Great
Lakes late Monday into Tuesday morning, which looks to bring
precipitation chances into those areas, but remaining well north and
east of Iowa. Though remaining dry into Iowa, this clipper will
extend some cold air into north/east Iowa Tuesday, leading to colder
highs in upper single digits to mid teens, while the rest of the
state remains more mild in the upper teens to low 20s, with breezy
conditions. High pressure settles overhead briefly Tuesday
evening, departing into Wednesday.

Little change in the overall pattern through the mid-late week
period, as the western thermal ridge continues to build, resulting
in the continued period of ``milder`` temperatures across the
southwest half of the state in the teens to 20s. Further north/east,
the gyre of mid-level low pressure circulating over southern Canada
into the Great Lakes will keep a colder airmass extending into
northeast Iowa, resulting in generally colder conditions there
through the rest of the work week as highs generally remain in the
single digits to low teens. With dry air generally over much of Iowa
as a few waves of surface high pressure glide through, guidance
indicates very little chance for precipitation. Worth mentioning
though is a weak signal for some moisture return paired with a
passing shortwave down across the Dakotas, indicating very low
chances (<15%) for snow into far western Iowa later Thursday/Friday
per GFS/Euro, though low confidence given this is several days out.
Something to keep an eye on through the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Patchy MVFR stratus is passing south of FOD and will pass
largely west of DSM. Confidence is too low to include, but there
could be a brief window of MVFR ceilings at DSM around the start
of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through
the period as winds become from the southwest and turn gusty by
Monday afternoon. While surface winds remain elevated into the
evening and low level winds increase, the threshold for low
level wind shear does not look to be met at this time.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ004>007-
015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Ansorge