757
FXUS63 KDMX 020446
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1046 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk for severe weather for Monday evening. Severe
  risk extends into the after dark hours. Damaging winds and a
  tornado or two are possible.

- Rain and storms remain possible Tuesday. Rain chances extend
  into Thursday for at least northern Iowa.

- Highs cool midweek with highs in the 40s possible for northern
  Iowa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Some peaks of sun brought temporary relief from the rain today.
Highs will top out in the mid 60s. Clouds are starting to fill in
from the south and will cover the area starting tonight. The western
CONUS trough will eject into the Central Plains Monday, ushering in
moisture advection ahead of it. That advection wing arrives after
midnight tonight, bringing a few tenths of an inch of rain to
northern and northwest Iowa. The low pressure will move across
southeast SD. Showers and storms will be common in the warm sector
through the day and the main severe threat will come late in the
evening in the form of a low-topped QLCS along the cold front. As
has been the case leading up to the event, shear favors organized
storms and tornadoes, but the thermodynamics limit the extent
and intensity of both threats. Due to a saturated PBL with dew
points in the 60s, it may take time for the surface to decouple,
extending the wind and tornado threat into the overnight hours.
This is why the Marginal Risk was extended into more of
southern Iowa. Speaking of moisture, the other factor will be
the efficient rainfall. The cold front will slow down overnight
due to the trough wrapping up and stalling, meaning widespread
rainfall amounts between 1 and 2" are likely over southeast
Iowa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The stalled upper low will sink towards Iowa on Tuesday and its dry
slot will rode the midlevel clouds and allow for some of the stratus
to mix out. The cold front will exit the area in the early morning
and add to the mixing potential with CAA. Post-frontal storms will
be possible as low-level lapse rates steepen and will contribute to
the gusty winds that afternoon. Storms could trend stronger if the
dry slot comes more north into the state, allowing for lapse rates
in the midlevels to steepen out once more. Wednesday and
Thursday have trended colder. This is because the upper low will
park right over Iowa Wednesday and all but guarantee stratus
and rain until the TROWAL departs late Thursday. Highs may very
well trend down and into the 40s. Highs will recover back into
the 50s and 60s once the flow resumes a southerly component.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Conditions have begun to deteriorate across Central Iowa as
every site is either IFR or MVFR due to low CIGS, low VSBY or
drizzle. This trend will continue through the duration of the
TAF window as a slow moving surface low approaches the area.
While not present at the moment, LIFR conditions will also be
possible. Beginning in a few hours, increasing shower chances
will exist starting at KFOD around 11Z and quickly pushing
eastward across the region. Showers with embedded storms will
prevail through much of the period with a brief lull around 23Z
before chances increase toward 02Z. Along with showers and
storms, strong southeasterly winds are forecast to develop mid-
morning. Sustained winds from around 20 knots are expected with
gusts upwards of 25 to 30 knots and almost 35 knots at KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jimenez
LONG TERM...Jimenez
AVIATION...Vorst