484
FXUS63 KDMX 141139
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
539 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record high temperatures today.

- Cooling trend begins Saturday though more noticeable by
  Sunday.

- Rain and possible some snow in the forecast early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 403 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warm advection continued to move across Iowa overnight in the 925-
800 mb range where temperatures are 4-7 C warmer as thermal ridging
nudges into the state. The warm advection just above the surface has
created a pronounced low level inversion and it will limit the
mixing depths on today. Higher surface dew points are lifting north
this morning as well with readings in the 40s over central and
southwest Iowa and in the 50s in Kansas City. These higher dew
points will surge north into Iowa today. The significance of high
dew points is more energy is needed to heat air with a higher
moisture content. High temperatures on Thursday easily outpaced
forecast guidance with drier air and deeper mixing than what will
occur today. So what do all of this changes mean for high
temperatures for today? Despite limited mixing, expect mixing will
still reach to near 900 mb. Very dry air aloft should mix down and
result in lower dew point values than what most guidance is
suggesting this afternoon. Finally, it is much warmer aloft as
stated above. Expect temperatures to be several degrees warmer than
Thursday and should push record high temperatures at many locations
with highs in the upper 60s north to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
Record highs are Des Moines(73), Waterloo(72), Mason City(71) and
Ottumwa(75).

The thermal ridge will be over the state tonight into early Saturday
morning. A closed low moving east from Alberta to Manitoba today
into Saturday will flatten the upper ridge and will result in a
boundary moving across Iowa. Tonight will be mild with lows in the
40s and 50s. The warm start to the day followed by a well mixed
boundary layer will still result another warm day with highs in the
50s north to near 70 south as the mixing will help off-set cold
advection for most of the day. Temperatures will likely begin to
fall from north to south in the afternoon as the cold advection wins
out.

High pressure ridge will arrive on Sunday and will bring very dry
dew points to Iowa which will play a roll in early next week`s
weather. If anyone is paying attention to the very wet weather
across southern California today and Saturday, that is the system
that will arrive early next week. Good moisture advection aloft will
occur as the surface high retreats to the northeast and the
California system approaches. The surface flow will still be
originating from the high pressure so there will be a shallow yet
very dry layer below the saturating profile aloft. Hydrometeor
loading of the dry air below will eventually occur and will drag
temperatures through that layer towards the wet bulb values. This
means temperatures are too warm for Monday and will need to be
lowered, perhaps significantly over the next few days. It is
possible a transition to snow may happen as this cooling occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A few areas of fog have reached far southwest Iowa but not
anticipating impacts at any of the sites this morning. Otherwise
this forecast period revolves around wind. The light south wind
this morning will become breezy at times by this afternoon. A
boundary will approach overnight and will bring a gradual shift
to westerly wind. Local low level wind shear may also occur
overnight. Any clouds will be AOA 10 kft.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon