643
FXUS63 KDMX 030445
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1045 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light wintry mix possible late afternoon and evening, mainly
  west of I-35. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Dry with a warming trend this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A weak embedded upper level shortwave is passing across
Nebraska and into western Iowa this afternoon, accompanied by
surface theta-e advection. Across Nebraska this has resulted in
a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle and snow, creating slick
spots on roads. As this shifts into western Iowa this afternoon
and evening it will encounter drier air from the high pressure
that has been situated across the state. Soundings and cross
sections show this well with a notable midlevel dry layer, which
will translate to a messy precipitation type forecast. A
continuation of the light freezing drizzle from Nebraska into
Iowa is expected, though there could be additional snow,
especially as the column continues to cool and a seeder-feeder
scenario sets up and allows for more flurries/snow. Better lift
shifts southeast of the area with the shortwave passage, and
when combined with the dry air the wave will battle,
accumulations are expected to be quite light. This should help
to mitigate widespread impacts, but a few slick spots are
certainly possible this evening.

Stratus, and perhaps a few flurries, will linger through Saturday.
Then, a surface low will pass north of the area on Sunday,
increasing warm air advection across the area and kicking off a
warming trend lasting into next week. Precipitation with the low is
expected to remain north of the area, however it may skim parts of
northern Iowa. Ridging through at least the middle of the upcoming
week will help to keep temperatures mild. How mild? There
remains some uncertainty here. As the previous discussion
mentioned, a similar setup over around Christmas resulted in
forecast temperatures much too warm with days of fog and
stratus. This go around looks a little drier and there is
significantly less snowpack in place, which may help to mitigate
all the fog and stratus. However, this time of year stratus is
quite persistent and suspect that the higher end temperatures
forecast into the middle of next week may need to come down. A
pattern change looks to arrive by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Trend has been a delay of several hours for the arrival of MVFR
restrictions at a given terminal from previous forecast. -SN was
removed at DSM/FOD as any flurries would have no impact.
Otherwise, maintained a pessimistic forecast and kept MVFR
conditions lingering into Saturday evening. The one exception is
OTM, where there may now just be a short period of MVFR
restrictions, but confidence is below normal. Winds remain light
through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Ansorge