397
FXUS63 KDMX 102347
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
647 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) issued for parts of Central Iowa
  for late tonight into Tuesday morning. Damaging winds are the
  primary concern.

- Another round of severe storms possible Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) issued for all of
  Central Iowa.

- On and off thunderstorm chances continue through most of the
  week, with severe weather and heavy rain possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Monday


Visible satellite imagery shows a mix of sun and clouds across
central Iowa this afternoon. Skies remain somewhat hazy due to
elevated wildfire smoke advecting into the region via northwesterly
flow. This smoke is anticapiated to remain aloft, limiting impacts
on surface air quality. High temperatures will climb into the upper
80s to lower 90s statewide. Heat indices will reach the 90s to near
100F across southern Iowa, remaining just below Heat Advisory
criteria. While rich moisture and heat will yield substantial
instability (MUCAPE 4000-5000 J/kg), strong convective inhibition
(CIN) will keep the atmosphere capped through the day. Storm chances
increase late Monday night into early Tuesday wildfire smoke
will remain aloft over Iowa through Wednesday.y morning as a
nocturnal LLJ strengthens over the Central Plains. CAMS are in
good agreement that a storm cluster will originate over South
Dakota and northeast Nebraska, tracking into northwest Iowa
early Tuesday morning.

As convection moves into northwest Iowa, extreme instability (3000-
4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will foster highly supportive environment for
severe storms. Forecast soundings indicate a dry sub-cloud layer
resulting in a cold pool development with the cluster of storms
which will lead to a damaging wind threat. However, a robust
capping inversion remains in place across northern Iowa, which
may restrict storms from fully tapping into deeper instability.
A critical factor to monitor is the northward extent of the LLJ.
Numerical guidance remains consistent in positioning the LLJ
axis across southern and central Iowa. Should the LLJ shift
further north, increased warm air advection and low level shear
could erode the cap, allowing for storms to tap into the
instability core and escalating the damaging wind threat. The
SPC has placed all of northern Iowa into a Enhanced Risk (level
3 of 5) to highlight the threat for damaging winds.


Tuesday

Showers and storms from the early morning convection are expected to
clear out by early Tuesday afternoon. We begin to warm like Monday
and we set our sights on another shortwave that will come out of the
Rockies. As the shortwave comes across the high plains, another
round of showers and storms will fire in the Dakotas. This has
similar looks to what could happen tonight into early Tuesday
morning. Instability looks to build into the afternoon and there
appears to be enough for severe storms. We will continue to iron out
the details as we get closer as Monday`s nights storms could play a
role.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Most of Wednesday morning will be dry but we are watching the
potential for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Medium range guidance look to bring ample moisture in and with PWATs
over 2", heavy rainfall could occur.. Excessive Rainfall Outlooks
has central Iowa in a Slight Risk for flash flooding. Embedded
shortwaves look to track across the Plains and into central Iowa
keeping us active with showers/storms through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered afternoon cumulus around 2500 to 3500 ft are slowly
dissipating early this evening, leaving primarily VFR conditions
through the evening. However, we will see showers and storms
increasing after midnight, primarily over northern Iowa.
Confidence is moderate to high that storms will move through
the area early Tuesday morning, but exact timing is less
certain. Therefore, TAFs capture the currently expected time
windows for storms at KFOD, KMCW and KALO and will be refreshed
as confidence increases. Strong winds could also accompany the
line of storms, and this is referenced in the TEMPO groups.
Showers or storms are possible as far south as KDSM, depending
on the strength of the system, but confidence is lower so have
opted for PROB30 SHRA at this time.

After the storms move out tomorrow morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the remainder of the day with light and
somewhat variable winds.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDR
LONG TERM...TDR
AVIATION...Dodson