813
FXUS63 KDMX 300349
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny and dry Thursday afternoon with rain and a few
  thunderstorms returning tonight.

- Rain will remain in the forecast for much of Friday and the
  daytime Saturday.

- After a break Sunday, rain and storms will return Sunday night
  and last through at least midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The remaining stratus and fog burned off in the late morning, so
most of Iowa will be clear this afternoon. Some easterly flow will
come off high pressure over the Great Lakes region and into
Wisconsin, which opens up the chance for radiational cooling in
northeast Iowa. Lows have been adjusted with some mid 30 possible in
northeast Iowa. Southerly flow will reestablish itself overnight in
the south. This is in response to a shortwave ejecting into the
region, which will also usher in our next chance of rain for much of
Friday. Early on in the event (mainly around sunrise Friday) some
scattered nonsevere thunderstorms will be possible in the southern
half of Iowa. Rain will persist through the day and another round of
storms are possible with the return of the LLJ. While most all the
state will see rain, highest amounts will be in the southern half
with totals over half an inch. Thunderstorms will push amounts close
to an inch in localized areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The shortwave will be slow to exit the region and troughing over the
Rockies will pull the moisture axis north. This will result in
continued rain chances moving into northern Iowa through the day
Saturday. Light showers will linger in southern Iowa through
Halloween night as the moisture axis is pulled west. Amounts
Saturday will give the highest amounts to northern Iowa.

Height rises will reside over Iowa on Sunday, and the advection wing
will have lifted into Minnesota. This will keep Sunday cloudy and
cooler, but dry. The complex synoptic trough will increase southwest
flow Sunday night with rain beginning to arrive. Its influence will
keep precipitation chances going all the way through at least
Wednesday. The highest chance for thunderstorms looks to be Monday
afternoon and evening. This is when the lower and upper level jet
align parallel to the cold front and the instability axis makes a
run north. Severe weather is questionable at this range given
the overnight and morning storms; cloudcover from these will
make surface destabilization challenging. Beyond Monday, a
northern stream wave will usher in another cold front from the
northwest, reinforcing the wrap around precip from the first
system. Widespread moderate rain is possible from the cumulative
rounds of rain. Most of the state could see a total between 1
to 2 inches, but the rainfall will be spread in a large enough
timespan that hydrology impacts will be minimal. A cooldown
follows the complex of waves with high temperatures returning
to the 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Areas of scattered rain showers with isolated embedded
thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
several hours from southwest to northeast across Iowa.
Confidence remains higher at KDSM and KOTM for this activity,
with lesser confidence further north and east, where PROB30s at
most are used for shower/storm activity in the morning and into
the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower through the day,
with likely MVFR conditions by mid-late morning and especially
afternoon, which may also occur where heavier showers move
through that bring about lower visibilities. More specific
timing and location details will continue to be monitored and
refined as trends are better known. Otherwise, winds will
gradually increase through the morning, turning slightly breezy
out of the southeast at 15-20 knots, before decreasing towards
the end of the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jimenez
LONG TERM...Jimenez
AVIATION...Bury