991
FXUS63 KDMX 271120
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
520 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold and breezy today with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph.

- Returning arctic air Friday, then warming through the 30s this
  weekend and next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

The cold front moving across Iowa early this morning has allowed
for a period of stronger northwest winds, gusting 25-35 mph at
times. There has also been a low stratus deck along the front
that has at times resulted in a burst of snow, typically only
lasting 15-20 minutes with little accumulation but with
visibility dropping to 1-2 miles. This is expected to pivot
across northeast Iowa over the next couple hours, swinging east
of the area towards sunrise. The trough across Iowa can be
picked out on GOES-East water vapor imagery. This will keep
temperatures cool in the teens to near 20 this afternoon. Winds
will remain breezy today with cold air advection and subsidence
across the area. Soundings across the area generally have 20-30
kts through the mixed layer, though a few indicate transient
35-40 kt winds at the top of the layer. While these higher gusts
are less likely to make it to the surface, a stronger gust or
two cannot be ruled out into this afternoon.

Similar temperatures, though less breezy, through the upcoming week.
A reinforcing shot of arctic air will push across the area on
Thursday night and Friday resulting in another day with highs
in the single digits to low teens. Then a warm up with 30s back
in the forecast Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The synoptic setup for today features a large mid-level thermal
ridge across the western CONUS, while further east over the Great
Lakes, the deepening trough that brought the frigid conditions over
Iowa last night into today continues to move east out of the region.
Dangerously cold temperatures started the day in the -10 to -15
range north and in the -5 to -10 range in southern Iowa, which were
accompanied by even colder wind chills around -20 to -30 degrees
north and -10 to -20 degrees south. Temperatures since this morning
have increased quite nicely across the state though in the teens
across the forecast area. This warming is thanks to southwesterly
surface slow becoming widespread over the region, with increasing
warm air advection resulting in breezy conditions across Iowa. So
far, gusts have reported in the 20-30 mph range as expected over
much of the area, though overperforming at times along and west
of I-35 where a handful of 35 mph gusts have been reported,
with an isolated 40mph report at Carroll. These winds will
continue to be breezy into the evening generally in the 20-30
mph range, then decreasing slightly before shifting
northwesterly into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows are expected
to fall into the low single digits north and in the low teens
south.

Further north, a trough passing across Ontario through the rest of
today into Tuesday. Any precipitation with this clipper system
riding the larger scale flow continues to trend further north/east
away from Iowa, with plenty of dry air overhead keeping conditions
dry. Surface high pressure will slide down across the Central Plains
through the day, with highs expected in the single digits to low
teens northeast and in the upper teens to low 20s southwest. By
Wednesday, the western thermal ridge will move closer to Iowa that
will result in even warmer conditions overhead, with afternoon high
temperatures slated to peak in the mid to upper 20s in the southwest
half of Iowa. Further north and east though, the large gyre of low
pressure slowly circulating over the Upper Midwest/Southern Canada
and its associated cold airmass will keep more chilly temperatures
extending into north/east Iowa in the teens. A weak shortwave within
the large ridge passing southeast across the western plains is
hinted Wednesday, with a return of Pacific mid-level moisture into
Iowa per NAM guidance, which places a narrow ribbon light snow over
northern into eastern Iowa. A closer look at model soundings from
the NAM show a deep isothermal layer in the low levels in northeast
Iowa, along with notable lift, however the remainder of
deterministic model solutions keep the forecast dry due to plentiful
dry air in the low levels, so have favored the dry solution at this
time and will continue to monitor.

Another area of surface high pressure sinks down into the region
towards Thursday as Iowa generally remains between the two larger
aforementioned large-scale features. The deepening trough and
associated cold airmass over the Great Lakes as indicated from
GFS/Euro guidance then sinks south across the region, cutting Iowa
off from the warmer thermal ridge to the west through the start of
the weekend and bringing chilly conditions overhead. Temperatures as
a result will trend colder once again Thursday and especially into
Friday as morning lows bottom out below zero across Iowa, along with
wind chills well below zero in the -15 to -25 range, coldest north.
Could see a cold weather headline issued in northern Iowa later this
week if expected temperatures continue to lower at least in northern
Iowa. Dry conditions look to hold otherwise as any weak shortwaves
attached to the larger ridge generally stay west of Iowa.

A weak boundary passing through Iowa by Saturday from west to east
per guidance may bring some low chances for snow west, but the
moisture availability remains more questionable as this seems very
limited given the larger presence of dry air that looks to remain
over the Midwest. Then, a pattern change looks to be on the way by
Sunday into next week as the western thermal ridge finally arrives
over the Midwest, which will gradually bring above normal
temperatures into the region to start the month of February around
or just above freezing, which will be a welcome change for those who
prefer the warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Very isolated remnants of a deteriorating MVFR stratus deck are
moving across northern Iowa. While most of Iowa is clear, these
have occasionally passed over ASOS sites and resulted in an hour
or less of MVFR conditions. These will exit the area or
dissipate entirely in the next 1-2 hours. Then VFR conditions
will prevail across all sites through the period. Breezy
northwest winds will gust 25+ kts today into this afternoon
before diminishing. This evening winds shift to out of the west.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hagenhoff
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Hagenhoff