170
FXUS63 KDMX 152024
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
324 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  into evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible with
  gusty winds and small hail the primary threats.

- High confidence in a stormy pattern through the week.
  Conditional severe threat Monday evening with additional
  threats on Tuesday. Timing, location, and hazards, remain
  dependent on previous day activity but at least one round if
  not more than one round of strong to severe storms will be
  possible over the state to start the week.

- Increasing confidence in heavy rainfall this week that could
  lead to flash flooding and/or river flooding later in the
  week. Similar to above, the location is not clear, but chances
  will increase if rain can repeat over the same basins and as
  time goes on in the week.

- Staying warm and humid most days through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Early day showers and storms lingered much longer into the morning
hours than CAMs wanted to let them with most early day runs
initiating and then immediately diminishing any ongoing activity.
This is especially true for the MCV which has continued to persist
through SD into MN this morning into afternoon, though in most
morning runs past 12Z data was not the case. The morning
showers/storms did leave clouds around into early afternoon, but
these have started to dissipate in northwest Iowa with temperatures
continuing to warm into the upper 70s to 80s while dew points are in
the 60s to even 70s across the area. Like yesterday, have already
noted bubbling cu on satellite early this afternoon with MLCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg present across the area per SPC
Mesoanalysis. Shear remains the limiting factor again today with
values remaining quite weak, generally less than 20 knots of bulk
shear across the area and at most approaching 30-35 knots far
west/northwest as we get into the evening hours. In addition to the
MCV, a weak shortwave is moving into the area while the boundary of
the last several days also continues to arc roughly northwest to
southeast through the middle of the area. This boundary will
continue to lift north this afternoon with storms expected to
initiate near the boundary and in the instability gradient with some
isolated development to the south and more scattered activity to the
north diving south with time. Generally speaking the severe threat
remains lower, not too dissimilar to last night, with a few strong
to marginally severe storms possible with small hail and gusty
winds, the better threat area where the SPC Day 1 Marginal (Level 1
of 5) is placed in northwest into portions of north central Iowa.
What needs watching is how this MCV continues to progress with time
as the last night to earlier day runs that actually continued this
MCV with time today turn it into a wind threat (though mostly sub
severe) as it moves through portions of northern into central/east
central Iowa. Will continue to monitor closely tonight. As occurred
last night, can`t rule out festering showers/storms through the
overnight though timing and placement remains quite uncertain given
current model trends again not capturing ongoing activity well.

The next shortwave in the shortwave train moves through the region
on Monday. It is stronger than the one today, but largely passes to
the north of the state. With a cold front diving south out of the
Northern Plains and a likely overnight MCS in portions of ND/MN as
well, these become the foci for our next round of storms.
Instability, shear, and lapse rates all peak to the north and west
of the area and this is where the SPC Day 2 Enhanced (Level 3 of 5)
risk is for supercells that could bring large hail, damaging winds,
and some tornadoes. Iowa is on the periphery of this activity which
overall is a conditional threat pending on what happens tonight and
festers overnight into Monday morning. In addition to the shortwave,
a mid-level jet will be in place to the north that could help
convection to the north continue or even redevelop Monday afternoon,
potentially arriving in Iowa in the evening as the front dives
south. Should storms occur/make it to Iowa organization will drive
the threats but at this time, all hazards could be on the table.
Again, this is a highly conditional threat that will continue to be
monitored very closely into tomorrow.

The shortwave train continues on Tuesday when the best forcing
finally arrives in the area and will be paired with the sinking cold
front and the best combination of instability and shear that we`ve
seen of the last several active days. This will create another day
of potential severe weather on Tuesday. Mesoscale details remain
important as does timing of previous day activity/amount of
clearing/destabilization and the location of the boundaries in terms
of the main threat area and even ultimately hazards, but anyone with
outdoor interests especially should continue to monitor the weather
closely over the next several days.

The other component of this early week activity is how much rain we
may see after having already received anywhere from a trace to 2+
inches last night into this morning. HREF 48 hour PMM QPF values
from 12Z this morning to 12Z Tuesday add another 1-3+ inches to
this, without including activity on Tuesday. Given 1-2"+ pwats
persist through early week with warm cloud depths promoting
efficient rainfall, cumulative hydro concerns become an increasing
threat after each subsequent round of rain. Any flash flooding
concerns would be in the areas that see repeated storms. However,
the several rounds of storms will increase rain in the rivers and
will lead to at least increased flows on area rivers if not some
possible river flooding by the end of the week. This hydro threat
will also be watched closely but is highly dependent on when, where,
and how much rain falls over any one area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mix of MVFR to VFR conditions ongoing around midday with morning
showers/storms largely having dissipated completely. Still
expecting some isolated to scattered showers and storms to
develop late this afternoon into the evening but confidence
continues to remain lower with timing and impacts within 5SM of
a TAF site due to uncertainty in development location and
timing with model guidance continuing to not handle current
activity ongoing across SD into MN well. This keeps confidence
lower in shower/storm mentions as well as any associated
impacts so have maintained prob 30 groups. Will have to
continue to monitor trends and adjust as convection develops.
Additional shower/storm chances persist into Monday at times,
though bulk of activity beyond end of this TAF period except
for any lingering activity after this afternoon/evening. Winds
will be out of the south to variable at times, especially near
the lingering boundary, with speeds generally remaining light
through the period except with higher gusts at times near
storms.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05