814
FXUS63 KDMX 291142
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across Central Iowa today.

- Shower and storm chances (60-80%) return by Thursday
  afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash
  flooding into Friday morning.

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) issued for western Iowa for
  Thursday afternoon. Main concern gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

We kick off our Wednesday morning with an upper level ridge to our
west over in Nebraska and South Dakota. Conditions remain quiet
overnight, though a shortwave over central Nebraska is prompting a
few showers and thunderstorms. As this shortwave progresses eastward
toward daybreak, it will bring a (20-30%) chance for showers and
storms into eastern Nebraska and potentially far southwest Iowa.
Severe weather is not expected, and any activity should taper off by
late morning.

Dry weather will prevail through the afternoon alongside slightly
warmer temperatures. Central Iowa should see highs return to the
upper 80s, while western Iowa stands a better chance of touching the
lower 90s due to deeper mixing and minimal wildfire smoke impacts.
Thicker wildfire smoke across northern and northwestern Iowa could
keep high temperatures capped in the mid to upper 80s.

Focus shifts to Thursday as a more active pattern approaches. A
slight chance for showers and storms returns to far western Iowa
Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon, MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 35-45 kts of 0-6 km shear will support
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across western Iowa.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, enhanced by dry
low level air. To highlight this severe potential, the Storm
Prediction Center has placed western Iowa under a level 1 of 5
marginal risk. This activity then spreads eastward across
central Iowa Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026


While a Marginal Risk exists for severe weather, the paramount
concern for Thursday into late Friday is heavy rainfall. Tall,
skinny CAPE profiles alongside PWs ranging from 2.00 to 2.50 inches
favor highly efficient warm-rain processes. In addition to these
moisture parameters, the slow-moving nature of the upper-level
trough will support several rounds of heavy rainfall through the
frontal passage late Friday. Given the elevated flood potential, the
WPC has placed the area in Day 3 and Day 4 Slight Risk EROs.

Behind the departing shortwave, surface high pressure builds into
the region for the weekend. Temperatures behind the front will run
roughly 10 degrees cooler compared to forecast highs on Wednesday.
Although model confidence degrades late in the weekend into early
next week, temperatures are expected to gradually rebound toward
seasonal summertime values.

An approaching shortwave trough and surface low will bring
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
through late Friday. Elevated PWs and tall, skinny CAPE profiles
will support multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, prompting Day 3 and
Day 4 Slight Risk EROs from the WPC, alongside a Day 3 SPC Marginal
Risk for severe storms along the western CWA periphery. Surface high
pressure brings drier and roughly 10 degrees cooler weather for the
weekend before temperatures gradually rebound early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the end of this taf period.
Areas of patchy shallow fog have been present this morning at
KFOD and KMCW terminals. The fog should burn off by 13z
resulting in no concerns for restrictions the rest of this TAF
period. Wildfire smoke will be possible again today but
confidence is high that we won`t see any visibility issues at
terminal sites.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDR
LONG TERM...Vorst
AVIATION...TDR