712
FXUS63 KDMX 110832
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
332 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected this morning and are possible again
  from midday into the early evening. All severe hazards are
  possible including damaging winds (potentially up to 80 mph
  early this morning), large hail, and tornadoes, as well as
  heavy rain bringing a threat for Flash Flooding.

- Gusty winds behind the storms may have 30-40 mph gusts, with
  50 mph gusts not out of the question from late morning into
  late afternoon west to east respectively.

- Cooler, drier conditions develop on Friday.

- Thunderstorm chances return Saturday, some of which may be
  severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Upper level trough crosses through the Central Plains this morning
before swinging through the Upper Midwest this afternoon into
tonight and then arriving in the Great Lakes region late tonight. At
the surface, a low over western Kansas early overnight is expected
to move towards and then into Iowa this morning as it heads for the
southern Great Lakes area into tonight. Additionally, the boundary
is stalled out around central Iowa that will later on today continue
to progress eastward as a cold front while the warm front/modifying
outflow has begun to activate in central Nebraska early this morning
and will continue to lift back northward. With ample forcing as
noted already aided further by a 40-50+ knot LLJ we`re looking at
another round of severe storms this morning with some chance for
additional development along the eventually progressing cold
front/any lingering boundary from this morning`s activity from
around midday through this afternoon.

We`ve already coordinated a Severe Thunderstorm watch with SPC and
surrounding offices for this first round early this morning
with the risk of large hail, some very large hail possible
early, with all guidance and expectation in the clusters of
storms growing upscale into a severe MCS as they progress
eastward across Iowa bringing the threat for damaging wind gusts
up to 70 mph, potentially even destructive and up to 80 mph.
Although early storms are generally expected to be elevated, a
tornado could be possible early with supercell structures but
certainly with time storms are expected to become surface based
as moisture surges back in this morning sending instability
values by mid morning back to 2000-4000 J/kg and with nearing 50
knots or more of 0-6 bulk shear. Thus, tornadoes along the line
near and then after sunrise are possible as the storms cross
through southern into portions of central Iowa. The bulk of this
first round should be through by 15 or 16Z (10 or 11A) and is
the highest severe risk of the day.

Additional storms may be able to reactivate along the cold front as
previously mentioned or any lingering outflow depending on our
atmosphere recovery. This looks most likely in the far
east/southeast but could also occur in portions of central to north
central Iowa if this first round is able to push through quickly
(south central), or with locations that stay dry in the first round
(portions of central into north central Iowa) or further east
altogether if morning storms hold on longer. All hazards are on the
table again - damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes, with
the tornado threat highest near the triple point into east
central/northeast Iowa, but should not be discounted elsewhere given
the environment. Showers have already started in northwest Iowa and
showers, occasional storms, are expected to prevail a good portion
of the day over northwest into northern Iowa where the severe risk
is much lower (severe weather not expected in northwest Iowa).

Behind these 2 rounds of storms, environmental winds on the back
side of the low look to increase with gusts of 30-40 mph common, and
50 mph gusts not out of the question. Considered a wind headline but
confidence in location and timing is not quite there to do so but
this will be something we will watch closely into midday with these
winds expected to move in west to east from mid morning west.
through late afternoon to early evening in the east

The Flood Watch also remains in effect this morning, see the hydro
discussion for further details on the hydro threat with these storms
today.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Behind the cold front on Thursday, conditions become cooler and
drier through Friday. Thunderstorm chances then return again on
Saturday, with severe storms possible once again Saturday afternoon.
With so much ongoing in the short-term, will discuss this risk more
thoroughly once we are through the current active period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Evening storms have cleared the area with VFR conditions
through the overnight. On Thursday morning a line so severe
storms will move across central and southern Iowa. Strongest
storms expected to reach KDSM around 12z and KOTM by 13z, with
lesser thunderstorm severity north towards KFOD/KMCW/KALO. The
main hazard with this line of storms is strong winds. Amendments
will be needed to capture the severity later this morning. Low
visibility and low ceilings to at least MVFR, though IFR is
possible, during 12-15z period when strongest storms move
thorugh. MVFR ceilings will linger through the morning behind
the storms. A brief lull is possible late morning before
additional thunderstorms develop early afternoon into early
evening. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will still be breezy
today gusting 25-30 kts out of the northwest through around 00z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Flash flood concerns exist through Thursday morning due to rainfall
earlier today as well as additional rain later today into tonight.
See the latest WPC Day1/Day2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs) and
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions (MPDs), as well as NWC Flood
Hazard Outlooks (FHOs) and Area Hydrologic Discussions (AHDs) for
more details. We issued a flash flood watch up to I-80 to
highlight the threat through Thursday morning.

Greatest concern is potential flash flooding tonight in central and
southern Iowa. Training storms may produce up to 3-4+ inches of rain
in those areas. Flash flood threat in central Iowa would mainly
involve urban areas including the Des Moines metro area. Higher end
rainfall may lead to flooding of creeks and small streams. In
southern Iowa, flash flood concerns involve more than urban areas,
such as roads going through lower areas or near streams. Higher end
rainfall there may lead to more significant flash flooding.

With much of the potential flash flooding occurring during the
night, floodwaters can be more difficult to see especially in areas
that lack urban lighting. We would like to remind people to avoid
driving into flooded areas, instead find an alternate route. Also
people living in areas prone to flash flood impacts should plan in
advance what to do if floodwaters threaten their areas tonight.

Longer term, the risk of river flooding over the next several days
is minimal (generally less than 15-25%), however minor to moderate
within-bank rises are again possible in basins that receive heavier
rainfall.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ057>060-
070>072-081-082-092.
Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for IAZ061-062-
073>075-083>086-093>097.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Hagenhoff
HYDROLOGY...Zogg