056
FXUS63 KDMX 040506
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1106 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and breezy this week. Winds may gust over 20 mph each
  afternoon. Temperatures will fluctuate through the 50s and
  60s day to day.

- Robust system Friday through the weekend will bring much
  colder air into the area this weekend and precipitation, some
  of which may be of the frozen variety.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure is settling into the area, keeping skies clear this
afternoon. This has also allowed for deeper mixing, especially in
northern Iowa on the perimeter of the surface high and winds
there have gusted 20-25 mph at times this afternoon. Zoom out
for a wider view of the CONUS and notice a PV anomaly across
Utah this afternoon. This will slide east quickly, bringing
cloud cover to the area overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Winds will also shift to southerly with warm air advection
increasing across the area through Tuesday. This will send
temperatures Tuesday afternoon into the 60s across the area with
far southern Iowa nearing 70 degrees. With some deeper mixing
through the afternoon, expected to see some gusts over 20 mph
as well, especially in parts of southern and eastern Iowa.

Breezy conditions will be a common theme this week, along with
temperatures that will slide between mid 50s to mid 60s day to day
with several wave passages. The next one passes across the area on
Wednesday and while precipitation remains well north of the area,
local impacts will include cooler temperatures and breezy winds.
Wednesday highs will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, but nearer
seasonal average for this time of year in the low to mid 50s.
Meanwhile, with a tightened pressure gradient across the area with
the surface low to the north and deep mixing in dry model soundings,
expect winds to gust 20-25+ mph. Winds and gusts were nudged up
today to account for this, however model soundings still show places
with 30+ kts at the top of the mixed layer. If these can be realized
further increases may be needed.

A similar wave passes to the north again on Thursday. This one
places Iowa within the warm sector and temperatures warm a few
degrees again, while southerly winds remain breezy. Once again,
highest winds will be across northern Iowa in closest proximity
to the surface low. Precipitation remain mainly to the north on
Thursday, however as the system deepens as it moves east it will
tap into gulf moisture with precipitation beginning to stretch
south by Friday. This may skim parts of eastern Iowa as the
boundary is dragged east. Cooler air will filter in behind the
system on Friday as the area is transitioned into a northwest
flow regime and this sets the stage for the weekend.

After a mainly dry week where wind and temperature fluctuations
are the main weather themes, the story changes for the weekend.
A robust low dives south out of Canada and across Montana
before arriving in Iowa by Saturday. This will pull down the
coldest air of the season thus far, along with a shield of
precipitation along the north/northwest side of the surface low.
Current high temperatures on Saturday are at the 75th
percentile of the NBM spread and likely well overdone at this
time, especially across the northern half of the state. This
will have notable impacts on the deformation zone precipitation
occurring on the north/northwest side of the low. Amongst the
GEFS and ENS suites, roughly half are showing at least some
amount of snow with this band of precipitation. Before we run
too far down this road, a few important notes. It will still
warm up Saturday afternoon so any early snow will likely
transition over to rain in the afternoon. And, the track of the
system is still uncertain with this being 6 days out and any
shifts will have tangible impacts to the forecast -
temperatures, precipitation type, and winds. If you have
sensitive plans on Saturday keep a close eye on the forecast,
knowing it will most certainly change as additional data is
available. And while the precipitation on Saturday contains a
lot of unknowns, the much cooler air behind this system is a
clearer signal (though the GFS remains a bit colder than the
Euro). All in all, expect a breezy, chilly weekend ahead with
some flavor precipitation type likely across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions to prevail with midlevel cloudiness expected
overnight. Gusty southeast winds with gusts over 20kts possible
midday, tapering off from the west after 20z and becoming
southwesterly.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez