746
FXUS63 KDMX 022057
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation possible tonight, mainly north. Very limited
  chance of icing with warmer temperatures expected to prevail.

- Warming through the week with thunderstorm chances arriving
  Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The stratus has been scattering over southwest into central Iowa
this afternoon. The scattering and thinning of the stratus is
beginning to expand into eastern Iowa as well. A more pronounced
area of stratus extends from Kansas to the Ohio Valley and it is
this area of clouds that will lift northward overnight as return
flow increases later tonight into Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis is
ongoing over eastern Colorado and north along the lee side of the
Rockies. It is this system will lift a warm front north from Texas.
An area of precipitation is beginning to develop over southern South
Dakota and northern Nebraska. Cloud bases in that region remain AOA
6 kft and much of the precipitation is evaporating prior to reaching
the surface. The forcing associated with this system as it moves
east, will move across northern Iowa tonight. A few deterministic
models are trying to saturate profiles over northern Iowa but given
the stratus clearing ongoing and mainly a Pacific moisture source,
this is likely overdone. A few solutions suggest a seeder/feeder
setup with the mid-level cloud based hydrometeors feeding stratus
below. Again, the the stratus field has been eroding and it may not
fill in again until the Missouri stratus lifts north. Expect some
liquid precipitation to occur over northern Iowa. At this time, the
primary precipitation type looks to be rain as higher dew points
continue to advect northward along with a warming low level profile.
Any precipitation amounts should be light and will continue to
monitor for any icing potential should temperatures remain cooler
than expected. Areas of drizzle may develop with the stratus
advancement northward as some weak vertical ascent develops at times
late tonight and into Tuesday. The stratus steering flow turns from
southerly to northeasterly during the afternoon. That will likely
keep cloud skies over central and southern Iowa therefore have
cooled high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 256 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The broad westerly upper level flow will persist through much of the
week with one open upper level system passing through Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This system will bring precipitation chances to
southeast Iowa and it may include isolated thunderstorms. The main
system to monitor remains the system at the end of the week. Strong
Gulf flowing lifting north may bring dew points into the low 60s
into southern Iowa by Friday. This system may bring elevated storms
across the state Thursday night into Friday morning. Will continue
to monitor storm potential and details.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions to begin the period over Iowa though
KDSM is the exception at VFR. Expect cigs to rise this afternoon
into the 2500-3500 ft range before cigs descend tonight and
into Tuesday morning. Cigs will become IFR to LIFR late in the
forecast period. Areas of drizzle may develop as well with a
period of freezing drizzle possible near KMCW. The wind will be
from the southeast with a few sites near 12 kts sustained this
afternoon before diminishing.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon