893
FXUS63 KDMX 121143
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
643 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record to record warmth continues through today.

- Low chances for precipitation far south tonight. Greater
  chances central and south late Tuesday/Tuesday night. A strong
  storm may occur.

- Greater chances for widespread precipitation Wednesday night
  and Thursday.

- Much cooler end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The latest surface analysis shows the approach of a weak, mostly dry
cold front currently positioned over northwestern Iowa. Ahead of the
boundary, warm-sector temperatures are sitting in the upper-60s to
lower-70s. Behind the front, under cold air advection, temperatures
drop into the upper-50s to lower-60s. Within the warm sector, two
surface high-pressure centers exist: one centered over the Four
Corners region and the other over the Sand Mountains of northern
Alabama. Both features are aiding in keeping the area dry overnight.

Through the remainder of the overnight period and into the day
today, the cold front will continue diving through the forecast
area. Some saturation ahead of the boundary appears likely, but this
will primarily manifest as high level cloud cover. Large-scale
vertical motion remains weak, resulting in negligible PoPs for the
local forecast area, while stronger forcing and higher PoPs reside
closer to the surface low center in Minnesota. Outside of
precipitation chances, high temperatures ahead of the front will
remain above average, climbing into the mid-80s.

Behind Mondays front, surface high pressure builds back into the
region. However, as a shortwave trough breaks off the quasi-
stationary upper-level trough over the Rockies on Tuesday, chances
for showers and storms will increase as lee-side cyclogenesis takes
place. This setup positions the area on the cool, northern side of a
low-level theta-e gradient. Along this thermal and moisture
boundary, isolated to scattered chances (20-40%) of showers and
storms are expected. Post-frontal air will keep conditions cooler,
with high temperatures falling about 10 to 15 degrees below Mondays
values.

A weak, mostly dry cold front will move through the region on
Monday, bringing some cloud cover and warm highs in the mid-80s,
while stronger forcing and precipitation remain further north.
Cooler high pressure builds in behind the front for Tuesday,
dropping temperatures by 10 to 15 degrees. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The shallow surface boundary will stall somewhere across northern
Missouri on Tuesday and favor the more northern solutions for this
boundary location given the west/southwest flow aloft and how
shallow the feature is. Moisture will overrun this boundary and will
bring increasing chances for showers and storms to parts of central
and southern Iowa. MUCAPE values may approach 1000 J/kg over far
southern Iowa. This does look possible and should saturation occur
near 800-850 mb, lapse rate above this level are sufficient for
this MUCAPEs and could support marginally large hail. The
greater chance for showers and storms arrive Wednesday night
into Thursday as the main upper low lifts northeast into the
region. A strong system diving south out of Canada will quickly
push the precipitation out of the area. Much cooler temperatures
will follow with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in
the 30s along with the potential for frost perhaps as early as
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Lingering
LLWS will dissipate as diurnal mixing occurs over the next
couple of hours. Breezy southwesterly winds are expected through
late tonight before a cold front crosses through the area. Winds
are forecast to shift to out of the northwest behind the front
first after 06Z for KFOD and KMCW and closer to 12Z for KOTM.
Sustained southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to
25 knots are likely this afternoon.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Vorst