539
FXUS63 KDMX 121729
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1129 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry this week with highs in the 50s, reaching the 60s
  Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Skies have gradually cleared into this afternoon as the trough with
embedded PV anomaly that supported overnight clouds lifts to
the east. This has provided a clear satellite view of the
surface where we have watched the snow pack across northwest
Iowa shrink through the day as temperatures warm into the 50s.
West winds have been breezy today, gusting 20-25+ mph at times
with an enhanced pressure gradient across the area. High
pressure slides east this evening and tomorrow, helping to
diminish winds.

While the snowpack across northwest Iowa contributed to cooler
temperatures there today, that will not be the case on
Wednesday. Wednesday temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s
across the area, similar to what much of the area saw this
afternoon. By Thursday the surface high will have shifted east,
allowing for southerly flow into the area. Warm air advection
into the area through the end of the week will send temperatures
into the 60s by the end of the week with portions of southern
Iowa likely reaching the low 70s by Friday and Saturday. A
shortwave riding the northern edge of the thermal ridge will
pass well north of the area Friday and Saturday, further
enhancing the warm air advection across Iowa. The Euro pulls
this system south across eastern Iowa by Saturday afternoon to
evening, grazing northeast Iowa with light rain while the GFS
remains further north. Given track uncertainty the forecast is
dry for now. As this wave passes east Saturday night winds shift
to northwest, pulling cooler air into the area. Even so, highs
in the 50s will continue Sunday into early next week. There is a
signal in both the GFS and Euro for a closed low lifting out of
the desert southwest and Iowa the midwest early next week which
may be the next opportunity for more widespread precipitation,
however there has been little run to run consistency and
confidence is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only
high ceilings around FL200-250. WNW winds will diminish toward
sunset and become light and variable overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Lee