448
FXUS63 KDMX 091146
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
546 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers linger this afternoon and evening,
  though little additional accumulation is expected.

- Cold and blustery on Sunday with highs in the low 30s and
  northwest winds gusting 25-30+ mph.

- Warmer Tuesday through the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Rain and snow continues to move across the area this afternoon.
Precipitation types have generally evolved as expected so far with
snow across the north, transitioning to a mix across central
Iowa, and rain in the south. Snow amounts have been highest in
northwest Iowa where the winter weather advisory was in effect
in the area where the deformation zone pivoted across. Areas in
our west central to northwest counties, and into the Sioux
Falls CWA Iowa counties have seen 2-4 inches within the advisory
area with under 2 inches across northern Iowa east of the
advisory. Higher snow rates this morning were able to overcome
initial warm ground temperatures with partially snow covered
roads in the northwest. As rates have slowed into the afternoon
and the DOT has been able to treat roads, conditions have
quickly improved. In most cases roads are generally wet with
accumulations in grassy areas. Even so, slick spots are
possible in areas where snow is falling.

As the low continues to skirt across our south and continues
lifting east snow will begin to taper off across the area later
this afternoon. Dry air is already beginning to filter in across
western Iowa, and if we zoom out for a wider view of the
midwest we see the secondary boundary with much colder air
sitting north of the area and rotating around to push south into
the area. As this surge of cold air advection reaches the area
winds will increase with enhanced pressure gradient and
subsidence behind the surface low. Model soundings note
lingering shallow moisture across the area within the dendritic
growth zone this evening, and overnight into Sunday morning.
This moisture, combined with weak instability noted by
steepening lapse rates in the lowest levels and increasing winds
hint at the potential for lingering light snow of a more
shower-y variety. These would not be widespread and would
produce little in the way of additional accumulation, but could
result in brief visibility restrictions.

Temperatures will continue to fall overnight into the teens to low
20s and remain cold on Sunday with highs in the low 30s. As
temperatures fall after dark roads should quickly cool as well and
may ice up, especially elevated and untreated surfaces. Be ready for
slick spots this evening and on Sunday morning. Northwest winds
remain breezy through the day on Sunday with continued cold air
advection across the state. Model soundings indicate 25-30+ mph
gusts possible, resulting in wind chills in the teens to around
20 degrees through the day on Sunday.

Cold air sticks around through Monday, but this will be the end as
winds lighten and the upper level trough shifts east. By
Tuesday ridging returns with warm air advection sending
temperatures back to the mid 50s. The 50s stick around through
the upcoming week with 60s possible by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cloud breaks ended up panning out last night with stratus
avoiding most TAF sites. A SCT to BKN deck will form this
afternoon and produce snow showers, persisting after 00z for
eastern sites. For KOTM, KALO and KMCW, there`s a chance for
quick bursts of snow to reduce vsbys, but the expected
occurrence is transient enough that it was not included in the
TAF. Some stratus could linger over northern Iowa tonight, hence
the SCT deck remains. Gusty northwest winds, will persist for
much of the period with gusts over 25kts forecasted for all
sites.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez