097
FXUS63 KDMX 260725
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
225 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances across northern and western Iowa (30-60%)
  which will continue through the night.

- Mild and cloudy conditions expected elsewhere across the state.

- Relatively active pattern with multiple rain chances through
  the week. Widespread rain and thunderstorm chances (40 to 70%)
  return on Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again
  Friday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Looking across the state, light showers are ongoing across portions
of western and northwestern Iowa. Composite radar indicates showers
over portions of central Iowa, however, METAR observations show
nothing is making it to the ground from these. Furthermore, sounding
analysis shows dry air in the low levels, meaning this is likely
virga instead of actual showers. There is some saturation as we step
out in time, meaning that as we continue into the daylight hours,
rain farther east (still not quite to I-35) is possible, though the
expectation is that most showers will stay west and northwest.

Taking a look at what is driving this activity, at 500mb, high
pressure is currently sitting over portions of the Deep South, and
much of Iowa is under the influence of the associated ridge which
will allow for unseasonably warm temperatures to continue for much
of the state. As for the showers, a shortwave is passing through the
region to the west. This same pattern can be seen at 850mb, and this
high allows for a surge of gulf moisture to advect into the region.
At the same time, with the ridge sitting over parts of the state, it
limits the reach of this moisture to the west and northwest for
today. As we get closer to sunset, a low is expected to reach into
the area and help squash the ridge currently over us. After the low
makes it through the area this evening, rain chances will diminish
before returning Wednesday morning.

Even though widespread rainfall is not expected across much of the
state, cloud cover is expected to be a bit more widespread. As such,
temperatures have been adjusted to account for this. The
expectations are that with extra cloud cover, high temperatures were
running a little high, while overnight lows were too low. As such,
lows were poked up a couple of degrees (particularly in the north)
and highs were poked down a degree or two to account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A southwest to zonal flow patterns sets up from Tuesday through the
remainder of the forecast, with multiple shortwaves passing through
at various times in the week. This will keep the forecast semi-
active, with at least low chances for rain in Iowa each day
Wednesday through Sunday. Wednesday night into early Thursday will
be our next chance for widespread rain, primarily overnight. This
precipitation may also be accompanied by some marginal instability
(~500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), as well as a healthy 30 to 40 kt low
level jet overnight. It`s of course far too early to get deep into
specifics, but if that scenario plays out, a few stronger storms
could be possible in that Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, likely
leaning toward elevated, nocturnal storms for our area.

Beyond the mid-week system, there is actually pretty good agreement
among deterministic and ensemble guidance for another wave and
healthy plume of moisture to lift up into Iowa Friday through
Saturday, bringing the potential for more widespread rain and
thunderstorms. Both 23.13z NBM probabilities and 23.12z LREF (GEFS,
EPS, and GEPS driven) probabilities show a widespread 40 to 50%
chance for greater than 0.01" of 6 hr rainfall throughout
Friday into Friday evening, increasing to a 50 to 70%
probability for the same on Saturday. The LREF cluster analysis
is also quite impressive, with 3 of the 4 cluster solutions
indicating a 50% or greater chance for rain on Saturday, and the
remaining solution depicting stronger ridging and a delayed
arrival of the rainfall into Saturday night or Sunday. All this
to say, the current guidance is pointing toward a good chance
for rain falling over the area next weekend. However, keep in
mind that while ensemble models are more dispersive, they do
still change as the pattern does. We will have to keep an eye on
how things trend in the coming days. Regardless, the current
forecast looks relatively active for Iowa through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Lowered CIGs near 7kft remain possible at KFOD/KMCW through the
overnight and morning, with around a 20% chance of reaching MVFR.
Reaching MVFR CIGs appears more likely towards the end of the TAF
period (00-06z), though confidence is still too low to include.
There is also around a 20% of showers reaching KFOD/KMCW at 14-18z,
though impacts would be minimal. The highest confidence impact
through this period will be winds shifting to easterly at most sites
Monday morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...De Bruin