250
FXUS63 KDMX 012329
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch cancelled but ongoing river flooding continues.

- A fall-like feel returns to Iowa tonight with lows falling into
the 40s. Sunshine FINALLY returns to Iowa on Friday.

- Dry pattern sets up with comfortable temperatures for the first
full weekend and full week of October.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Central Iowa welcomes October on a soggy note, though most of
yesterday`s and early this morning`s rainfall has largely come to an
end. Totals across central Iowa generally ranged between 1 and 3
inches, with the highest amounts falling between Omaha and Waterloo.
River flooding is expected to persist through Saturday. A cold front
will usher in drier air and a crisp fall feel, with wind gusts
behind the boundary reaching up to 30 mph before diminishing
this evening. Ahead of the front, ongoing deep moisture
convergence in southern Iowa will help keep showers lingering
into the evening hours. While clouds will remain socked in for
several more hours, skies are expected to thin out overnight as
a true autumn airmass settles in through next week.

Tonight

As clouds clear across central Iowa, temperatures will drop
significantly. Most of central and northern Iowa will wake up Friday
morning with lows in the lower to mid 40s. For Des Moines, this
marks the first time temperatures have dipped below 50 degrees since
May 31st (when the low was 47 degrees).

Friday

Friday will bring a beautiful autumn day to start the month. High
pressure remains in control, keeping conditions dry with highs in
the 60s under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Similar pleasant conditions will hold through the weekend. A weak
disturbance if forecast to sweep across Minnesota; while some model
guidance hints at light shower activity in northern Iowa,
precipitation chances have been kept out of the forecast. Weak
forcing combined with low to mid level dry air will cause any rain
aloft to evaporate before reaching the ground. Behind this system, a
reinforced push of dry air will settle into central Iowa,
eliminating any significant rainfall chances for the first full week
of October. By mid next week, an upper level ridge building over
the Four Corners will bring temperatures back into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light drizzle persists across KOTM this evening with MVFR
visibility as the system continues to sink south and exit the
area. Elsewhere ceilings are lifting with a return the VFR.
Clearing is expected through the overnight from northwest to
southeast with SKC expected across all sites by Friday morning.
Wind will be out of the north at around 10 kts.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDR
LONG TERM...TDR
AVIATION...Hagenhoff