401
FXUS63 KDMX 040736
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
136 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, gray, blustery weather today into tonight with spotty
  light showers.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will set in later this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 135 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A large, stacked cyclone is spinning over the region early this
morning, centered near the Iowa/Minnesota border. During the day
today it will meander slightly northeastward, where it will
eventually be caught up by a trough moving into Hudson Bay,
scooping the low into the Great Lakes tonight but with a
trailing trough lingering over Iowa. At the surface, a large
cloud shield is wrapped around the low and blanketing Iowa and
neighboring states. Wraparound rain has affected northern and
western portions of our service area overnight, where it will
persist on and off today into tonight but remain light and of no
real impact. The result of this scenario will be a much cooler,
gray, blustery day as gusty northwest winds and overcast skies
give us a shot of real fall weather. Any spotty rain will be of
very little accumulation and temperatures will struggle to climb
more than a few degrees today, with forecast highs near present
levels in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A few showers may linger in the north as lingering moisture feeds
into the area. Once the low clears Iowa, flow aloft will begin to
come from the north and west. The abundant moisture transport into
the area that has helped drive the showers will be choked off, and
cooler, drier air will set in. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI),
which has been consistently highlighting the area as having above
normal highs and lows is starting to back off on this signal. By the
weekend, overnight lows look to dip into the 30s with the potential
for northern Iowa to see lows in the upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rain is gradually eroding from south to north and that trend
will continue the remainder of the night. IFR cigs will be
widespread into Wednesday though there may be some periods when
cigs rise to MVFR. Rain is expected to move back into northern
Iowa by Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. A boundary
will continue to move across the area overnight with a switch to
west/southwest wind and breezy the become predominant westerly
for the daytime Wednesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Donavon