409
FXUS63 KDMX 072014
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
214 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of light snow and flurries overnight, mainly the
north half of Iowa.

- Mostly dry and milder on Monday and especially Tuesday, with highs
rising back into the 30s and 40s on Tuesday.

- Strong cold front on Tuesday night will bring windy conditions
with a chance for snow showers.

- Active "clipper" pattern will continue right through the
  upcoming weekend with additional chances for snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

This Afternoon into Tonight: /Forecast Confidence = Medium to High/

In the wake of our latest snowfall event, cold Canadian sfc high has
moved into the upper Midwest this afternoon. While it was sure
nice to see the sun today, temperatures held mostly steady in
the single digits north to the lower 20s south.

Tonight, another weak, fast moving shortwave will move across
the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will induce a modest
southwesterly return flow ahead of the feature in the low to
mid levels. Weak warm air advection (WAA) will ensue with weak
isentropic ascent noted on the 285K-290K surfaces. Model
soundings and cross sections indicate the profile will saturate
overnight, which will lead to another round of light snow
developing. Lift is expected to be weak /generally less than -5
ubars/ but model consensus is kicking out a few hundredths
/0.01-0.05"/ of QPF, highest across far northern Iowa, resulting
in a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow. It should be noted
towards Monday AM the soundings do indicate a potential loss of
cloud ice. Thus, there is a low potential for a short period of
freezing drizzle to develop. Not expecting this to be
impactful, but something we`ll keep an eye on.

Monday thru Wednesday: /Forecast Confidence = Medium/

After any lingering early morning precipitation, expecting dry
conditions into Monday afternoon.  Models indicate plentiful cloud
cover/stratus during the morning, with some clearing possible by the
afternoon especially in the west.  As we know, cloud cover can be
pesky this time of year, especially stratus, and some guidance does
indicate it will persist most of the day especially in the north and
east.  Another clipper will pass well to the north on Monday
afternoon, which will allow allow a warmer south/southwest low level
flow to develop.  Expect milder highs on Monday with 20s in the
north, and near freezing in the central and south.

On Tuesday, a much stronger upper shortwave will move across the
Dakotas reaching the Great Lakes by Tuesday night.  This will induce
a strong sub 990mb sfc low, tracking roughly from Fargo, to the
Twin Cities, to near Green Bay. Ahead of this feature, strong
WAA will develop over Iowa, with models suggesting 850mb temps
rising to +4C to as high as +10C by Tuesday afternoon. With the
significant snowpack over IA, the high temperature forecast
will be a challenge but still expecting highs on Tuesday to
reach the mid 30s north, to the mid 40s south. Any precipitation
on Tuesday appears to be confined to the far north and east. At
this point rain, or a rain/snow mix appears to be the dominant
p-type, with the more significant snowfall well north over
MN/WI.


On Tuesday night, a strong cold front will drop from north to south
across Iowa. Very strong winds are likely behind the front due to
strong CAA, steep low level lapse rates, and a deepening sfc
pressure gradient. As noted previously, model soundings and various
statistical guidance is suggesting sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts 40 to 50 mph likely. Continue the trend of stronger
winds, and a wind headline will certainly be possible, and
obviously we`ll need to monitor the condition of snowpack and
the "blowability" of the snow. The hope is that above freezing
temps and/or light rainfall will "cap or crust" the snowpack,
making it less prone to blow. Additionally, as the colder air
rushes in, convectively induced snow showers will be possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning which could cause
visibility issues should they materialize. Obviously, we have
plenty of time to fine-tune those impacts. Highs on Wednesday
will fall back into the 20s.

Thursday into the Weekend: /Forecast Confidence = Low/

The wave-train of northwest flow upper shortwaves will continue with
another clipper system expected Wednesday night and Thursday
with yet another towards next weekend. Will not get too cute
with the details at this point except to mention that the active
weather pattern will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Sfc high pressure will result in VFR conditions this afternoon
into the early evening. Another weak system will lead to
increasing clouds later this evening with light snow developing
across northern terminals including FOD/MCW/ALO after 03z.
Expect CIGs and VSBYs to fall into the MVFR category at said
sites, with IFR conditions possible. Its uncertain attm if
snowfall, or the lower CIGs or VSBYs will impact DSM or OTM, and
adjustment maybe needed in future updates. North winds this
afternoon will gradually swing around to the southeast
overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowle
AVIATION...Fowle