206
FXUS63 KDMX 071151
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
651 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected
  off and on today into Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rain
  may occur which could lead to renewed or continued flooding in
  especially areas that have already received heavy rain in the
  last few days.

- Warm and humid conditions build this week with many areas
  exceeding 90 degrees by mid-week.

- Several chances for additional showers and storms midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows the upper low over southern
KS/northern OK with associated showers on the east side developing
with increasing theta-e advection over MO which is expected to
continue to lift northward with time into Iowa this morning. As this
low lifts northeastward with time today through the Midwest, there
will be several pushes of shortwave energy. The end result for Iowa
is several rounds of scattered showers and storms translating to off
and on chances for precipitation most of the day over most of the
area. It will certainly not be a complete washout with dry periods
at times, but this activity will last into Monday morning in eastern
Iowa as the upper low/trough lifts into the Great Lakes region into
Monday afternoon. Weak to locally moderate instability may lead to
thunderstorm development at times with the main hazard lightning.
Severe storms are not expected with weak shear and saturated
soundings. Heavy rain and localized flooding remains a concern,
however, with ample moisture off the Gulf resulting in pwats of near
to exceeding 2", with continued warm cloud depths. The ingredients
remain in place for efficient rainfall. NASA SPoRT 10 cm soil
moisture percentiles as of 7 Jun are over 90% in much of southwest
and south central Iowa which makes sense with all of the recent
heavy rainfall in those areas. This indicates soils are predisposed
to increased runoff which could renew or continue ongoing flooding.
Low lying, poor drainage, and areas with current ponding or near
fuller creeks are most at risk for flooding. Additional rises on
creeks and streams is likely, but river flooding probabilities
remain on the lower side with only minor within bank rises
anticipated. QPF totals in model guidance are not wild,
generally near to less than 1" over a widespread area with
pockets of 1-2". However, localized probability matched mean QPF
from the HREF does show some localized pockets of 2-3" which is
also seen in some of the CAMs. The location of these higher
pockets is not consistent run to run or amongst models, but
should these higher rain amounts fall in locations like southern
Marion County with flooding ongoing, renewed flash flooding may
occur. Should you encounter any flooded roadways remember to
turn around, don`t drown.

Temperatures today will be held down with the cloud cover and
rain/storms but still in the 80s and it will certainly feel muggy
with dew points in the 60s to 70s. Temperatures will be similar in
the east on Monday where cloud cover holds on longer while areas to
the west into portions of central Iowa warm into the upper 80s.
It will feel even hotter with the higher dew points remaining
sending feel-like temperatures into the low to even mid 90s, the
hottest conditions in western Iowa where clearing occurs earlier
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This week thermal ridging builds across the area with a western US
trough ejecting bits of vorticity into the midwest, providing
opportunities for precipitation. In this weak flow regime
consistency amongst model guidance is low, as the GFS  indicates an
MCS across northern Iowa on Tuesday while the EC waits until Tuesday
night and placement is across most of the state. The main trough
will pass across Iowa Wednesday into Thursday, providing the
next window for more organized storms. SPC has outlined a 15%
risk area here for Wednesday as the trough moves across Iowa.
Even here the GFS is slower compared to a more progressive EC
solution.

While synoptic evolution is less certain this week in this weak flow
regime, increasing heat and humidity is more certain as the thermal
ridge builds. The NBM remains on the high end of the guidance
envelope, but has started to come down a handful of degrees. With
plenty of moisture in play, warm and humid conditions will prevent
deeper mixing needed to achieve the mid 90s the NBM was
progging. Even so, upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to around 70 will make it feel quite muggy this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions are across much of the area early this morning
though some sites have dropped to MVFR visibilities in northern
Iowa. These drops are expected to be short lived. Challenging
aviation forecast for the rest of the day with scattered showers
and thunderstorms forecast off and on through much of the day.
Trying to time these out for when the will/will not be within
5SM of a terminal is very difficult with the expected scattered
nature. Thus, used prob30 groups for thunderstorm mentions and
tried for prevailing -shra when more confident. There are
several rounds expected today, however, so timing refinement is
likely. Guidance suggests at least scattered MVFR CIGs will move
in this afternoon with some suggesting nearly widespread MVFR to
IFR tonight. Confidence wasn`t there at this issuance to suggest
widespread IFR conditions tonight so will continue to evaluate
this need. Winds are largely out of the southeast today and near
to under 12 knots with occasional higher gusts, though winds
certainly could be more gusty/erratic than noted around
showers/storms.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...05