915
FXUS63 KDMX 050501
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1101 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, gray, blustery weather today into tonight with spotty
  light showers.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will set in later this
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The latest surface analysis across the CONUS remains active with
multiple synoptic-scale features in place. The primary feature is a
997mb surface low currently centered over the Chequamegon National
Forest region of northern Wisconsin. Additionally, broad areas of
surface high pressure are centered across the northern and southern
CONUS, while a secondary surface low develops off the Rocky Mountain
Piedmont and tracks toward the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Locally, the area remains under the cyclonic circulation of the
departing surface low, which continues to promote widespread stratus
cloud cover, cooler temperatures, areas of drizzle or light rain,
and brisk north-northwest surface winds.

For the remainder of the day, the surface low will continue to track
eastward; however, Iowa will remain positioned beneath the mid-level
deformation zone through much of the day and into Thursday morning.
As the low pivots eastward, frontogenetical forcing within the
deformation axis will drop southward through the area over the next
couple of hours, producing isolated to scattered showers this
afternoon that will persist into Thursday morning. Persistent low-
level moisture and cyclonic wrap-around will keep periods of drizzle
and light rain showers ongoing throughout the daytime hours. Breezy
westerly winds will veer to the north-northwest, allowing CAA to
reinforce late-autumn temperatures. Afternoon highs today will reach
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will exhibit a small
diurnal drop of only a few degrees, as extensive, lingering cloud
cover limits nocturnal radiational cooling. As the low departs
eastward and surface high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest,
a more representative November air mass will settle into the region.
Highs will top out in the upper 40s, while nighttime lows fall into
the 30s, with even colder conditions expected Friday night into
Saturday morning.

A departing low-pressure system, presently over northern Wisconsin,
will keep Iowa cool, cloudy, and damp through Thursday morning with
scattered showers and drizzle. Persistent cloud cover will limit the
diurnal temperature range today, while subsequent north-
northwesterly cold air advection and incoming high pressure will
usher in noticeably colder, seasonal conditions with lows dipping
into the 30s by the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface high pressure will largely dominate the synoptic regime
through the extended forecast period. While several shortwave
disturbances are projected to track across the CONUS, persistent
large-scale subsidence will keep the area dry, yielding only
intermittent passing mid- to upper-level clouds associated with
these features. Temperatures will rebound to above-normal levels, as
daytime highs climb into the 60s while overnight lows dip into the
lower to mid-40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

IFR ceilings and light showers span much of northern Iowa, with
MVFR ceilings and drizzle central and south. The light
showers/drizzle will continue drifting south and eastward
through the morning, tapering off by early Thursday morning. As
showers move through KFOD, KMCW and KALO, ceiling & visibility
may improve temporarily, then worsen again after they move out.
Winds will remain breezy around 10 to 15 kts out of the west
northwest with sporadic gusts around 20 kts possible through the
morning. Winds become more northerly through Thursday, but
remain breezy through the day with gusts of 20 to 25 kts
possible. Ceilings and visibilities improve some through
Thursday, but MVFR conditions persist through the day.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vorst
LONG TERM...Vorst
AVIATION...Dodson