513
FXUS63 KDMX 080832
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
232 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm Sunday and then peak on Monday when highs
  reach the 50s to low 60s.

- Seasonally mild conditions in the 30s-40s this week. Weak
  embedded waves may bring light precipitation chances mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The western US ridge slides east into the midwest this week with
warm air advection pushing into southwest Iowa Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures are maximized on Monday with a shortwave passing north
of Iowa that will put Iowa firmly in the warm sector with good
southwest flow into the state. With low dewpoints in the mid 30s
expect deep mixing allowing temperatures to warm to the high
side of the guidance envelope. Have blended towards the 75th
percentile on temperatures to better account for warming
potential. The Euro is further south with the northern shortwave
and increased cloud cover in northern Iowa will prevent further
warming. Will need to watch this closely and adjust
temperatures accordingly depending on the track of that wave.

By Monday evening the trailing cool front from the northern
wave drags across Iowa. This will moderate temperatures Tuesday
and beyond, cooler than Monday but still mild for this time of
year. Iowa remains on the northern edge of the thermal ridge
through this week with weak embedded shortwaves passing across
the area. Light precipitation is possible with these midweek,
though impacts at this time appear low with light QPF. The next
more impactful system may arrive next weekend but model guidance
is split at this time. Details will be better determined in the
next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions to prevail. Stratus has formed near MCW, ALO, and
OTM, which should continue to move east over the next 3 hours.
Clouds will remain in the picture for most of the period. Winds
will remain out of the southeast, becoming variable for KOTM by
around 23z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 227 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central
Iowa Cities on Monday...

=============================================
            |        Monday        |  Period
            |  Forecast   Record/  |    of
City        |    High      Year    |  Record
=============================================
Mason City        47      58/1976      1903-
Waterloo          50      57/1976      1895-
Des Moines        63      62/1976      1878-
Ottumwa           60      68/1943      1923-
Lamoni            65      60/1938      1897-
=============================================


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez
CLIMATE...Dodson