680
FXUS63 KDMX 250348
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1048 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonally warm and mostly dry conditions continue for much of
  the area.

- Cold front passing into the area tonight into Sunday may cool
  off temperatures in northern Iowa, as well as bring the
  potential for occasional light rain tonight and Sunday night.

- Relatively active pattern with multiple chances for at least
  light rain through the work week into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Pleasant and seasonally warm weather continues today. Surface
high pressure, southerly winds and dry conditions are present in
Iowa, although rain and occasional thunder aren`t too far away
over Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota. This activity
coincides with a slow moving cold front stretched across the
Missouri River valley region, extending southward from a
Canadian low to the north and connecting to a weakening low
pressure region over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This
front will progress into northwest Iowa later today, but
eventually stalls out over north central Iowa as the parent
wave pulls away to the north and east. Cooler temperatures,
breezier winds and more expansive cloud cover will accompany the
boundary as it moves into the area, but these conditions really
only impact areas behind the boundary, while areas farther
south and east stay in the warmer, southerly flow. Some
scattered light rain chances may also move in later this
evening, but will be confined to an elevated boundary in
northwest Iowa. An approaching 500 mb wave will also bring
increased high cloud cover to much of the area this evening,
filtering sunshine on Sunday.

The aforementioned boundary remains stalled around central Iowa
on Sunday, but retreats slightly northward with day time
heating. This will keep the seasonally warm temperatures
reaching the 70s over much of central and southern Iowa with
slightly cooler temperatures over northern Iowa, where highs may
only reach the upper 50s to low 60s. As we get into Sunday
night, the aforementioned 500 mb wave will begin to lift north
toward the state, further pushing the front back northward and
bringing additional rain chances to the area. However, most of
this precipitation stays to our north and west, with only the
northwest portions of the forecast area seeing rain chances
Sunday night into Monday. For the rest of the state to the south
and east, conditions remain dry with more extensive cloud cover
overhead through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The 500 mb trough currently over the southwestern CONUS eventually
lifts over the midwest Monday night into Tuesday, with the resultant
surface low generally passing over eastern Nebraska and South
Dakota. Increased theta-e advection in the warm sector of this low
will bring the potential for light rain to portions of central Iowa
on Tuesday, although dry air intrusion from the southeast and slight
displacement from the main synoptic lift will likely limit
precipitation coverage. A southwest flow pattern generally dominates
the central US through the week, maintaining a steady stream of
moisture and warmer, southerly air. As waves eject through this
pattern, we`ll see additional rain chances throughout the remainder
of the forecast. Some of these rain chances look to also have some
weak instability associated with them, suggesting the potential for
a few thunderstorms as well. The pattern remains relatively active
into next weekend, so will continue to monitor any rain and
thunderstorm potential as we progress through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. CIGs
may fill in and lower toward morning and again in the evening at
KFOD/KMCW, though MVFR CIGs are unlikely. Showers are also possible
in the morning but are too unlikely for inclusion in this issuance
(~10-20%).

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...De Bruin