851
FNUS73 KDMX 171425
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for McFarland Park...Story County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
825 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface winds from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph this morning will
increase to 10 to 15 mph by late this morning through this
afternoon. Wind gusts up to 20 to around 25 mph will be possible,
particularly in unsheltered areas. Clouds will increase through
the day and this will keep mixing heights on the lower side not
exceeding 2000 feet. Chances for light rain will increase from 30%
late this afternoon to 50% to 70% this evening before ending by
Tuesday morning. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will
fall to near 35% with excellent overnight recovery.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain late in the afternoon. Chance of rain late
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 20 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (37800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................8.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  82  78  77  77  84  92
Weather cov.....                SCH CHC CHC
Weather type....                RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  48  49  49  49  49  47
RH..............42  37  36  36  36  36  42
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..14  15  16  16  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.18  25  25  26  26  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
Transp wind spd.22  23  23  23  22  21  20
GFDI............7   8   9   9   9   9   8
Smoke Dispersal.30  35  38  37  31  18  15
Smoke Cat.......PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain likely
                    through the night.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................5.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  96  96  96  96  96  98  98  96  96  94  96
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............46  44  44  42  41  41  41  40  39  39  39  38
RH..............47  55  60  70  73  76  79  85  92  92  92  96
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..15  15  15  15  15  14  14  13  14  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.25  25  25  25  25  24  23  23  21  21  18  17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  E   E   SE  E   SE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.23  23  24  24  23  22  21  20  17  16  17  16
GFDI............7   6   5   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2
Smoke Dispersal.20  22  19  16  15  16  12  19  13  13  16  14
Smoke Cat.......PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain early in
                    the morning, then slight chance of rain late in
                    the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (18800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................2.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........96  94  90  87  85  86  86  85  82  79  80  83
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  38  38  41  42  43  44  45  45  44  43  42
RH..............92  92  96  85  82  79  79  73  73  76  79  82
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  16  15  16  15  15  15  16  16  16  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.14  13  13  14  14  14  13  13  12  12  12  10
GFDI............2   2   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
Smoke Dispersal.11  13  12  13  16  17  19  19  18  18  17  17
Smoke Cat.......PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Ansorge
Requested by...Brandon Clough
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526116.0/DMX
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclough@storycountyiowa.gov