915
FNUS73 KDMX 191416
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for TOMAHAWK WILDFIRE...USFWS
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
816 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 CST on February 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Only minor fire weather concerns today. Light north northeasterly
winds this morning will become breezy out of the north through
today. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph are likely today, with
gusts around 25 to 30 mph possible. Fortunately, cloudy skies and
cooler temperatures will keep relative humidity values moist
around 50 to 60%. Likewise, precipitation chances will increase
this afternoon with light to moderate snow expected into the
evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow early in the afternoon. Chance of snow
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 37.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 16 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (56600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................6.
Eye level winds.....North winds 13 to 14 mph.

TIME (CST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........71  78  80  82  84  86  88  91
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
Temp............29  31  33  34  35  35  34  33
RH..............70  68  65  61  59  60  61  65
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..16  17  17  17  18  18  18  17
20 FT wind gust.24  24  24  24  25  25  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Eye lvl wnd gst.19  19  19  19  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  21  21  23  25  24
GFDI............4   5   5   6   6   7   6   6
Smoke Dispersal.28  34  37  38  44  50  57  51
Smoke Cat.......PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow likely in the
                    evening, then chance of snow overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 19.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 16 to 18 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 17 to 18 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31900 knot-ft).
GFDI................5.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 13 to 14 mph increasing to
                    around 14 mph overnight.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  94  94  94  94  93  93  93  91  86  85  81
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN  SN
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  29  28  26  25  24  23  23  22  21  21  20
RH..............71  75  78  81  81  81  84  81  81  79  77  74
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..16  16  17  17  17  18  18  18  18  18  18  18
20 FT wind gust.24  25  25  25  25  25  25  26  25  26  25  25
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Eye lvl wnd gst.19  20  20  20  20  20  20  21  20  21  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  23  24  25  24  24  24  24  23  23  22  23
GFDI............5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Smoke Dispersal.42  40  40  45  43  40  38  34  34  33  32  35
Smoke Cat.......FR  FR  PR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 32.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 16 to 24 mph decreasing to around 13
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (55700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................3.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........82  79  76  65  48  42  36  28  21  13  14  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............19  19  19  21  23  25  27  29  31  32  31  29
RH..............74  77  77  74  73  68  63  58  53  49  49  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  16  16  15  15  15  14  13  12  9
20 FT wind gust.22  22  22  22  22  22  22  22  21  20  16  13
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W
Eye lvl wnd spd.13  13  13  13  13  12  12  12  11  10  10  7
Eye lvl wnd gst.18  18  18  18  18  18  18  18  17  16  13  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.2 2.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.22  24  23  22  22  21  20  20  20  20  16  13
GFDI............3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   2
Smoke Dispersal.32  41  38  35  38  41  42  49  56  54  36  16
Smoke Cat.......PR  FR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Dodson
Requested by...RYAN HARR
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2603183.0/DMX
.DELDT 02/19/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan_harr@fws.gov