885
FXUS63 KDTX 191051
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
651 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm today near the Ohio border;
dry conditions prevail elsewhere today and Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Friday night, with the highest
coverage and best chances on Saturday.

- Temperatures remain near normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lower VFR with pockets of MVFR stratus are working across SE MI this
morning following last night`s cold frontal passage. Increasing
diurnal mixing and drier air being advected into the region supports
a lifting/scattering trend in low cloud for the latter half of the
morning. Lingering frontal boundary over northern Ohio could
generate a few afternoon showers however these are favored to stay
south of the terminals. This does keep mid-cloud around for the day
before building high pressure leads to gradual overnight clearing.

D21/DTW Convection... No convection is forecast for the period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet first half of this
  morning, low be early afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

DISCUSSION...

A large and seasonably strong upper level low (544 DAM at 500 MB) is
centered over James Bay early this morning and looks to exert its
influence through the rest of the workweek. Respectable height falls
this morning supported light showers with the slowly advancing cold
front, although thunderstorms were hard pressed to materialize, as
expected with the limited instability. The front looks to wash out
close to the southern Michigan border as a weak PV filament breaks
off from trailing shortwave over the Midwest and tracks through
southern Lower Michigan late today. A secondary 850-750 MB Theta-E
ridge is expected to track south of Eight Mile Road this afternoon,
bringing enough instability near the southern Michigan border to
offer up a low chance of shower or thunderstorm.

Otherwise, upper level confluent flow sets in, strong subsidence/mid
level drying will allow for dry conditions tonight and Thursday as
high pressure (1018 MB) translates east through the Central Great
Lakes. A series of shortwaves is then on track to reinforce
troughing over the Great Lakes region.  The first one arrives Friday
evening/night, with a second, stronger shortwave arriving Saturday
that has the potential to cut off over the central/eastern Great
Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Numerous Showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely on Saturday. A lower chance of showers
continues into Sunday under cool cyclonic flow around as 850 MB
temps drop below 10 C.

Temperatures look to remain near normal through the forecast period.
High temperatures will generally hover within a few degrees of 80
degrees depending on the day, with overnight lows dropping into the
50s most nights.

MARINE...

Northwest flow takes hold this morning in the wake of a departing
cold front. High pressure will fill in through the day which will
promote light winds and dry weather, and will bring some more
variable wind direction by the afternoon before veering winds east
for portions of the southern Great Lakes. High pressure holds
through Friday morning before departing east across the continental
northeast. Active weather returns Friday afternoon and into the
weekend as a cold front moves through the region. Rain showers and
thunderstorms will become increasingly likely ahead of and along the
cold front.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM


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